Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 08/10, 18:00

Prediction: KuPS Kuopio vs AC Oulu

Team pages: KuPS Kuopio · AC Oulu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

KuPS Kuopio1.62

AC Oulu0.78

1X2

57% 25% 17%

KuPS Kuopio Draw AC Oulu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

KuPS Kuopio 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLDDW

AC Oulu 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWDLLL

Head-to-head

KuPS Kuopio 3–1–2 AC Oulu (6 last)

AC Oulu2-0KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio3-2AC Oulu
AC Oulu5-0KuPS Kuopio
AC Oulu2-2KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio1-0AC Oulu
KuPS Kuopio2-0AC Oulu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KuPS Kuopio 1532 · AC Oulu 1453

	KuPS Kuopio	Draw	AC Oulu
Our model	56%	27%	17%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS Kuopio (rating 1532 vs 1453).
H2H favours KuPS Kuopio: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KuPS Kuopio	AC Oulu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.58
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.04
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.67 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:47 +6’	1.57	3.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:01 +413’	1.58	4.04	5.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS Kuopio 3–1–2 AC Oulu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	AC Oulu	2-0 HT 1-0	KuPS Kuopio
22/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	3-2 HT 1-1	AC Oulu
28/02/26 Finland Liigacup	AC Oulu	5-0 HT 2-0	KuPS Kuopio
04/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	AC Oulu	2-2 HT 1-0	KuPS Kuopio
12/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	1-0 HT 1-0	AC Oulu
25/03/25 Europe Friendlies	KuPS Kuopio	2-0 HT 0-0	AC Oulu

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	25	13	9	3	41	24	48
2	FC Inter	25	13	9	3	32	18	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	42
4	IF Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	41
5	VPS Vaasa	25	10	6	9	30	25	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	34

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KuPS Kuopio	AC Oulu
VPS Vaasa	2-0 W	0-1 L
HJK Helsinki	0-0 D	0-1 L
IF Gnistan	1-1 D	1-2 L
FC Inter	0-1 L	0-1 L
IFK Mariehamn	2-4 L	1-1 D
SJK	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS Kuopio (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KuPS Kuopio

WWWDWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
13/09	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
23/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-3	2-4	10	3	L
16/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	3-1	1	2	W
18/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W

AC Oulu

LDWLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	0	4	L
12/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
08/09	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
31/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
22/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
16/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-3	3	3	L
09/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
02/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
25/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KuPS Kuopio vs AC Oulu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KuPS Kuopio win (57%). Probabilities: KuPS Kuopio 57%, draw 25%, AC Oulu 17%.

How many goals are expected in KuPS Kuopio vs AC Oulu?

The model expects 2.4 goals (KuPS Kuopio 1.62 · AC Oulu 0.78), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KuPS Kuopio vs AC Oulu?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.