Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 08/09, 17:00
Prediction: FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn
Team pages: FC Lahti · IFK Mariehamn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
FC Lahti1.76
IFK Mariehamn0.75
1X2
FC Lahti
Draw
IFK Mariehamn
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Lahti
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
IFK Mariehamn
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Lahti
3–2–1
IFK Mariehamn
(6 last)
- IFK Mariehamn0-2FC Lahti
- IFK Mariehamn0-1FC Lahti
- FC Lahti1-1IFK Mariehamn
- IFK Mariehamn4-0FC Lahti
- FC Lahti2-1IFK Mariehamn
- IFK Mariehamn0-0FC Lahti
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lahti (rating 1552 vs 1456).
- H2H favours FC Lahti: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Lahti | IFK Mariehamn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.2 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lahti 3–2–1 IFK Mariehamn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Lahti |
| 26/05/26 Finland Cup | IFK Mariehamn | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Lahti |
| 10/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Lahti | 1-1 HT 1-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 05/03/26 Finland Liigacup | IFK Mariehamn | 4-0 HT 2-0 | FC Lahti |
| 19/09/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Lahti | 2-1 HT 2-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 18/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Lahti |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | 32 |
| 2 | TPS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 3 | FC Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | 25 |
| 4 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 33 | 19 |
| 5 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | 15 |
| 6 | IFK Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | 14 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Lahti | IFK Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| VPS Vaasa | 1-0 W | 0-4 L |
| SJK | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| KuPS Kuopio | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| FC Inter | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| FF Jaro | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| FC Ilves | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| IF Gnistan | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| AC Oulu | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Lahti (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Lahti
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 21/08 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 16/08 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
IFK Mariehamn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
3-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/07 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lahti win (60%). Probabilities: FC Lahti 60%, draw 25%, IFK Mariehamn 15%.
How many goals are expected in FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?
The model expects 2.52 goals (FC Lahti 1.76 · IFK Mariehamn 0.75), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.