Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 08/09, 17:00

Prediction: FC Ilves vs FF Jaro

Team pages: FC Ilves · FF Jaro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

FC Ilves1.9

FF Jaro1.18

1X2

53% 24% 22%

FC Ilves Draw FF Jaro

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Ilves 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWLLL

FF Jaro 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Ilves 5–1 FF Jaro (6 last)

FF Jaro2-1FC Ilves
FC Ilves5-0FF Jaro
FC Ilves4-2FF Jaro
FF Jaro0-1FC Ilves
FC Ilves2-1FF Jaro
FC Ilves4-0FF Jaro

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ilves (rating 1472 vs 1419).
H2H favours FC Ilves: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ilves	FF Jaro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.7	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.01

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 21:50

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.52▲	Pinn 1.52
X	4.53 → 4.48▼	Pinn 4.48
2	5.86 → 5.69▼	Pinn 5.69

See the full journey (4)

Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:41	1.50	4.53	5.86
00:36	1.50▼	4.56▲	5.90▲
11:00 +1’	1.51▲	4.52▼	5.81▼
21:49 +1’	1.52▲	4.48▼	5.69▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ilves 5–0–1 FF Jaro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	2-1 HT 2-0	FC Ilves
17/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	5-0 HT 4-0	FF Jaro
31/01/26 Finland Liigacup	FC Ilves	4-2 HT 3-1	FF Jaro
20/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	FF Jaro	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Ilves
12/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	2-1 HT 2-0	FF Jaro
22/02/25 Finland Liigacup	FC Ilves	4-0 HT 0-0	FF Jaro

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lahti	22	9	5	8	26	19	32
2	TPS	22	8	7	7	28	23	31
3	FC Ilves	22	7	4	11	34	37	25
4	SJK	22	4	7	11	25	33	19
5	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	18	44	15
6	IFK Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	17	43	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ilves	FF Jaro
HJK Helsinki	1-2 L	0-3 L
VPS Vaasa	0-1 L	1-3 L
IF Gnistan	2-3 L	1-1 D
IFK Mariehamn	2-0 W	0-2 L
AC Oulu	0-1 L	0-1 L
FC Lahti	1-0 W	0-2 L
TPS	3-1 W	2-3 L
SJK	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ilves (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Ilves

LDLWWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
22/08	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
17/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	2-2	2-3	3	5	L
09/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
20/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	8	W
04/07	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
27/06	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-2	3	4	D
23/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-4	3-4	4	2	L

FF Jaro

DLWDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
22/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
16/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
08/08	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
01/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
24/07	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/07	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
04/07	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
27/06	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-3	8	3	L
23/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Ilves vs FF Jaro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Ilves win (53%). Probabilities: FC Ilves 53%, draw 24%, FF Jaro 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC Ilves vs FF Jaro?

The model expects 3.09 goals (FC Ilves 1.9 · FF Jaro 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Ilves vs FF Jaro?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.