Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 08/09, 17:00
Prediction: TPS vs SJK
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
TPS1.75
SJK1
1X2
TPS
Draw
SJK
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
TPS
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
SJK
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
TPS
3–3
SJK
(6 last)
- SJK3-1TPS
- TPS2-0SJK
- SJK3-2TPS
- TPS1-0SJK
- SJK1-0TPS
- TPS1-0SJK
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TPS (rating 1515 vs 1458).
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| TPS | SJK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.7 | 2.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · TPS 3–0–3 SJK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | SJK | 3-1 HT 1-0 | TPS |
| 18/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | TPS | 2-0 HT 1-0 | SJK |
| 11/03/23 Europe Friendlies | SJK | 3-2 HT 2-2 | TPS |
| 31/10/20 Finland Veikkausliiga | TPS | 1-0 HT 0-0 | SJK |
| 01/07/20 Finland Veikkausliiga | SJK | 1-0 HT 1-0 | TPS |
| 15/03/19 Europe Friendlies | TPS | 1-0 HT 1-0 | SJK |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | 32 |
| 2 | TPS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 3 | FC Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | 25 |
| 4 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 33 | 19 |
| 5 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | 15 |
| 6 | IFK Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | 14 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | TPS | SJK |
|---|---|---|
| IF Gnistan | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| VPS Vaasa | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| KuPS Kuopio | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| IFK Mariehamn | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| HJK Helsinki | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| FC Ilves | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| AC Oulu | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| FF Jaro | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: TPS (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
TPS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/08 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/07 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 11/07 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
SJK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 21/08 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/08 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 04/07 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in TPS vs SJK?
According to our model, the most likely result is a TPS win (54%). Probabilities: TPS 54%, draw 26%, SJK 20%.
How many goals are expected in TPS vs SJK?
The model expects 2.75 goals (TPS 1.75 · SJK 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in TPS vs SJK?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.