Football · Latvia Virsliga · 10/09, 18:00

Prediction: SK Super Nova vs Tukums 2000

Team pages: SK Super Nova · Tukums 2000

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

SK Super Nova1.36

Tukums 20001.31

1X2

37% 28% 35%

SK Super Nova Draw Tukums 2000

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Super Nova 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWLDDW

Tukums 2000 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLLW

Head-to-head

SK Super Nova 4–1–1 Tukums 2000 (6 last)

Tukums 20001-2SK Super Nova
Tukums 20001-2SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-1Tukums 2000
Tukums 20001-2SK Super Nova
Tukums 20002-1SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-0Tukums 2000

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Super Nova 1485 · Tukums 2000 1412

	SK Super Nova	Draw	Tukums 2000
Our model	37%	28%	34%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Super Nova (rating 1485 vs 1412).
H2H favours SK Super Nova: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Super Nova	Tukums 2000
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.30

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.31
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.93 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:43 +6’	2.38	3.30	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:43 +7’	2.20	3.31	2.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova 4–1–1 Tukums 2000

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Latvia Cup	Tukums 2000	1-2 HT 1-0	SK Super Nova
01/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-2 HT 1-1	SK Super Nova
11/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-1 HT 1-0	Tukums 2000
22/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-2 HT 0-2	SK Super Nova
28/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-1 HT 0-1	SK Super Nova
06/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-0 HT 1-0	Tukums 2000

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	28	22	4	2	68	20	70
2	Riga FC	28	20	6	2	82	28	66
3	FK Auda	28	17	5	6	45	27	56
4	FK Liepaja	29	12	5	12	39	41	41
5	BFC Daugavpils	29	10	8	11	34	33	38
6	SK Super Nova	27	9	5	13	28	38	32
7	FK Jelgava	29	8	7	14	32	48	31
8	SC Grobinas	29	5	9	15	20	51	24
9	Tukums 2000	29	5	8	16	43	59	23
10	Ogre United	28	3	5	20	27	73	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Super Nova	Tukums 2000
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	1-4 L
FK Auda	1-1 D	0-3 L
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	0-2 L
FK Liepaja	1-2 L	2-1 W
SC Grobinas	2-0 W	1-3 L
Ogre United	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: SK Super Nova (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Super Nova

DLLWLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
29/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
09/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
20/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
06/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
01/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
25/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-3	1-5	3	5	L
21/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
16/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	1	0	D

Tukums 2000

LLLLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
29/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
21/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
08/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
02/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
27/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
18/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-3	2	3	L
05/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
01/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
26/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova vs Tukums 2000?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Super Nova win (37%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova 37%, draw 28%, Tukums 2000 35%.

How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova vs Tukums 2000?

The model expects 2.67 goals (SK Super Nova 1.36 · Tukums 2000 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Super Nova vs Tukums 2000?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.