Football · Latvia Virsliga · 11/09, 17:00

Prediction: Riga FC vs FK Auda

Team pages: Riga FC · FK Auda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Riga FC2.06

FK Auda1.21

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Riga FC Draw FK Auda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Riga FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDLD

FK Auda 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Riga FC 5–1 FK Auda (6 last)

FK Auda0-2Riga FC
Riga FC4-1FK Auda
FK Auda1-2Riga FC
Riga FC4-1FK Auda
Riga FC1-2FK Auda
Riga FC6-0FK Auda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Riga FC 1615 · FK Auda 1536

	Riga FC	Draw	FK Auda
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1615 vs 1536).
H2H favours Riga FC: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Riga FC	FK Auda
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.9	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:49 +3’	1.60	4.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC 5–0–1 FK Auda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	0-2 HT 0-2	Riga FC
12/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	4-1 HT 2-1	FK Auda
20/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-2 HT 1-1	Riga FC
17/02/26 Latvia Super Cup	Riga FC	4-1	FK Auda
29/10/25 Latvia Cup	Riga FC	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Auda
13/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	6-0 HT 2-0	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	28	22	4	2	68	20	70
2	Riga FC	28	20	6	2	82	28	66
3	FK Auda	28	17	5	6	45	27	56
4	FK Liepaja	29	12	5	12	39	41	41
5	BFC Daugavpils	29	10	8	11	34	33	38
6	SK Super Nova	27	9	5	13	28	38	32
7	FK Jelgava	29	8	7	14	32	48	31
8	SC Grobinas	29	5	9	15	20	51	24
9	Tukums 2000	29	5	8	16	43	59	23
10	Ogre United	28	3	5	20	27	73	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Riga FC	FK Auda
BFC Daugavpils	1-1 D	1-0 W
FK Liepaja	2-3 L	1-0 W
RFS	3-3 D	1-1 D
SC Grobinas	4-0 W	1-0 W
Tukums 2000	3-1 W	3-0 W
FK Jelgava	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Riga FC

WDWWWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	2-3	9	5	L
23/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	3	4	D
09/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	4-1	4-1	5	8	W
02/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	4-0	7	1	W
18/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-1	8	3	W
03/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	11	1	W
29/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
25/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
21/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	5	0	W

FK Auda

WDLDWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
21/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
26/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
29/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
25/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	15	4	D
21/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Riga FC vs FK Auda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Riga FC win (56%). Probabilities: Riga FC 56%, draw 23%, FK Auda 21%.

How many goals are expected in Riga FC vs FK Auda?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Riga FC 2.06 · FK Auda 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Riga FC vs FK Auda?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.