Football · Latvia Virsliga · 15/09, 18:00

Prediction: SK Super Nova vs Riga FC

Team pages: SK Super Nova · Riga FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

SK Super Nova0.85

Riga FC2.45

1X2

11% 17% 72%

SK Super Nova Draw Riga FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Super Nova 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDDWW

Riga FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDLDD

Head-to-head

SK Super Nova 0–6 Riga FC (6 last)

Riga FC3-0SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-4Riga FC
SK Super Nova2-6Riga FC
Riga FC2-0SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-5Riga FC
Riga FC2-0SK Super Nova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Super Nova 1476 · Riga FC 1605

	SK Super Nova	Draw	Riga FC
Our model	10%	18%	72%
Market	11%	16%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1476 vs 1605).
H2H favours Riga FC: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Super Nova	Riga FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	3.5 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

18.00

X5.75

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.98

2 (-1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.50▲	Pinn 9.34 ★
X	5.75 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00
2	1.25 → 1.22▼	Pinn 1.24

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:01 +5’	8.00	5.75	1.25
22:10 +5’	8.50▲	6.25▲	1.20▼
07:01 +2’	8.50	6.00▼	1.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:54 +10’	8.36	5.70	1.27
12:05	8.38▲	5.72▲	1.27▼
21:52 +24’	9.67▲	6.21▲	1.22▼
22:32 +35’	9.64▼	6.19▼	1.23▲
06:01 +1’	9.63▼	6.19	1.23
06:06 +56’	9.46▼	6.06▼	1.23▲
08:52 +9’	9.61▲	6.18▲	1.23▼
09:40 +23’	9.42▼	6.03▼	1.23▲
11:49 +14’	9.34▼	5.96▼	1.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova 0–0–6 Riga FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	3-0 HT 3-0	SK Super Nova
14/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-4 HT 1-3	Riga FC
30/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	2-6 HT 1-3	Riga FC
22/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	2-0 HT 1-0	SK Super Nova
01/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-5 HT 0-2	Riga FC
06/03/25 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	2-0 HT 1-0	SK Super Nova

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	29	23	4	2	70	21	73
2	Riga FC	29	20	7	2	84	30	67
3	FK Auda	29	17	6	6	47	29	57
4	FK Liepaja	30	12	6	12	41	43	42
5	BFC Daugavpils	30	10	8	12	35	35	38
6	SK Super Nova	28	10	5	13	29	38	35
7	FK Jelgava	30	8	8	14	32	48	32
8	SC Grobinas	30	5	10	15	20	51	25
9	Tukums 2000	30	5	8	17	43	60	23
10	Ogre United	29	3	6	20	29	75	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Super Nova	Riga FC
Tukums 2000	1-0 W	3-1 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	3-0 W
FK Auda	1-1 D	2-2 D
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	1-1 D
FK Liepaja	1-2 L	2-3 L
SC Grobinas	2-0 W	4-0 W
Ogre United	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Riga FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Super Nova

LLWLWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
05/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
29/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
09/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
20/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
06/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
01/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
25/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-3	1-5	3	5	L
21/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	3	L

Riga FC

DWWWWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
07/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	2-3	9	5	L
23/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	3	4	D
09/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	4-1	4-1	5	8	W
02/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	4-0	7	1	W
18/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-1	8	3	W
03/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	11	1	W
29/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
25/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	0	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova vs Riga FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Riga FC win (72%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova 11%, draw 17%, Riga FC 72%.

How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova vs Riga FC?

The model expects 3.3 goals (SK Super Nova 0.85 · Riga FC 2.45), with a 57% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Super Nova vs Riga FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.