Football · Latvia Virsliga · 11/09, 16:00

Prediction: Ogre United vs FK Liepaja

Team pages: Ogre United · FK Liepaja

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Ogre United1.01

FK Liepaja2.28

1X2

15% 20% 65%

Ogre United Draw FK Liepaja

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ogre United 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDLLLL

FK Liepaja 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWLWD

Head-to-head

Ogre United 0–3 FK Liepaja (3 last)

FK Liepaja4-0Ogre United
FK Liepaja4-1Ogre United
Ogre United0-1FK Liepaja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ogre United 1402 · FK Liepaja 1526

	Ogre United	Draw	FK Liepaja
Our model	15%	20%	65%
Market	15%	20%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Liepaja (rating 1402 vs 1526).
H2H favours FK Liepaja: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ogre United	FK Liepaja
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 3.1	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	1.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.50

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:59 +2’	6.00	4.50	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre United 0–0–3 FK Liepaja

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	4-0 HT 3-0	Ogre United
12/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	4-1 HT 1-0	Ogre United
20/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Liepaja

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	28	22	4	2	68	20	70
2	Riga FC	28	20	6	2	82	28	66
3	FK Auda	28	17	5	6	45	27	56
4	FK Liepaja	29	12	5	12	39	41	41
5	BFC Daugavpils	29	10	8	11	34	33	38
6	SK Super Nova	27	9	5	13	28	38	32
7	FK Jelgava	29	8	7	14	32	48	31
8	SC Grobinas	29	5	9	15	20	51	24
9	Tukums 2000	29	5	8	16	43	59	23
10	Ogre United	28	3	5	20	27	73	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ogre United	FK Liepaja
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	1-2 L
RFS	0-3 L	0-0 D
FK Jelgava	2-3 L	2-0 W
Riga FC	1-4 L	3-2 W
SC Grobinas	2-2 D	3-1 W
BFC Daugavpils	0-4 L	1-3 L
SK Super Nova	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Liepaja (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ogre United

LWLWLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	7	9	L
30/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
22/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	3	5	L
09/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-4	1-4	2	8	L
27/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
19/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
06/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
30/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	7	3	L
26/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-2	3-2	2	5	W
22/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L

FK Liepaja

LWLWLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
31/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
30/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ogre United vs FK Liepaja?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Liepaja win (65%). Probabilities: Ogre United 15%, draw 20%, FK Liepaja 65%.

How many goals are expected in Ogre United vs FK Liepaja?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Ogre United 1.01 · FK Liepaja 2.28), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ogre United vs FK Liepaja?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.