Football · Latvia Virsliga · 12/09, 13:00

Prediction: SC Grobinas vs FK Jelgava

Team pages: SC Grobinas · FK Jelgava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

SC Grobinas1.21

FK Jelgava1.21

1X2

35% 29% 35%

SC Grobinas Draw FK Jelgava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Grobinas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLLLWL

FK Jelgava 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

SC Grobinas 3–1–2 FK Jelgava (6 last)

FK Jelgava2-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas0-0FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava0-1SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas3-2FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava0-1SC Grobinas
FK Jelgava1-0SC Grobinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Grobinas 1479 · FK Jelgava 1461

	SC Grobinas	Draw	FK Jelgava
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SC Grobinas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Grobinas	FK Jelgava
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:51 +8’	2.50	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Grobinas 3–1–2 FK Jelgava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	2-0 HT 1-0	SC Grobinas
11/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Jelgava
21/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	0-1 HT 0-1	SC Grobinas
29/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	3-2 HT 3-2	FK Jelgava
22/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	0-1 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas
29/04/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-0 HT 1-0	SC Grobinas

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	28	22	4	2	68	20	70
2	Riga FC	28	20	6	2	82	28	66
3	FK Auda	28	17	5	6	45	27	56
4	FK Liepaja	29	12	5	12	39	41	41
5	BFC Daugavpils	29	10	8	11	34	33	38
6	SK Super Nova	27	9	5	13	28	38	32
7	FK Jelgava	29	8	7	14	32	48	31
8	SC Grobinas	29	5	9	15	20	51	24
9	Tukums 2000	29	5	8	16	43	59	23
10	Ogre United	28	3	5	20	27	73	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Grobinas	FK Jelgava
FK Auda	0-1 L	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Liepaja	1-3 L	0-2 L
RFS	1-6 L	0-1 L
Riga FC	0-4 L	0-3 L
Ogre United	2-2 D	3-2 W
SK Super Nova	0-2 L	0-1 L
Tukums 2000	3-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK Jelgava (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Grobinas

DLWLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L
27/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
29/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
25/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

FK Jelgava

WWLLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
29/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
22/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
09/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
01/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
26/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
20/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
03/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	3-1	5-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Grobinas vs FK Jelgava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Grobinas win (35%). Probabilities: SC Grobinas 35%, draw 29%, FK Jelgava 35%.

How many goals are expected in SC Grobinas vs FK Jelgava?

The model expects 2.42 goals (SC Grobinas 1.21 · FK Jelgava 1.21), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Grobinas vs FK Jelgava?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.