Prediction: El Nacional vs 22 de Julio
Team pages: El Nacional · 22 de Julio
- 22 de Julio1-3El Nacional
- El Nacional1-122 de Julio
- 22 de Julio0-3El Nacional
| El Nacional | Draw | 22 de Julio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours El Nacional (rating 1449 vs 1397).
- H2H favours El Nacional: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Nacional | 22 de Julio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.4 | 0.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.7 | 0 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 0/20/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 1.7 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Nacional 2–1–0 22 de Julio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | 22 de Julio | 1-3 HT 0-1 | El Nacional |
| 09/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 1-1 HT 1-1 | 22 de Julio |
| 11/07/25 Ecuador Cup | 22 de Julio | 0-3 HT 0-1 | El Nacional |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Vargas Torres | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 22 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | LDU Portoviejo | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 22 | 31 |
| 3 | Gualaceo SC | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Cumbaya | 24 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
| 5 | El Nacional | 24 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 37 | 9 |
| 6 | 22 de Julio | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 37 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | El Nacional | 22 de Julio |
|---|---|---|
| LDU Portoviejo | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Gualaceo SC | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Independiente Juniors | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Cumbaya | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 1 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: El Nacional (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/08 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/08 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 31/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/07 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 08/07 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
22 de Julio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 21/08 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/08 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/08 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/07 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 02/07 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/06 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Nacional vs 22 de Julio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a El Nacional win (57%). Probabilities: El Nacional 57%, draw 26%, 22 de Julio 17%.
How many goals are expected in El Nacional vs 22 de Julio?
The model expects 2.22 goals (El Nacional 1.52 · 22 de Julio 0.7), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in El Nacional vs 22 de Julio?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.