Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 17/09, 20:00

Prediction: Independiente Juniors vs Atletico FC Guayaquil

Team pages: Independiente Juniors · Atletico FC Guayaquil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Independiente Juniors1.28

Atletico FC Guayaquil0.79

1X2

48% 30% 23%

Independiente Juniors Draw Atletico FC Guayaquil

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Juniors 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDDDWL

Atletico FC Guayaquil 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDWLDW

Head-to-head

Independiente Juniors 0–2–0 Atletico FC Guayaquil (2 last)

Independiente Juniors0-0Atletico FC Guayaquil
Atletico FC Guayaquil1-1Independiente Juniors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Juniors 1545 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1527

	Independiente Juniors	Draw	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Our model	47%	32%	22%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Juniors	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/78/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.20

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +19’	1.85	3.20	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Juniors 0–2–0 Atletico FC Guayaquil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Independiente Juniors	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico FC Guayaquil
22/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Atletico FC Guayaquil	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Juniors

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Juniors	25	11	10	4	30	19	43
2	Atletico FC Guayaquil	25	10	12	3	30	17	42
3	Club 9 de Octubre	25	10	12	3	28	18	42
4	Vinotinto Ecuador	25	11	7	7	32	19	40
5	CD Cuenca Jrs	25	9	8	8	21	27	35
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	25	7	11	7	26	28	32

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Juniors	Atletico FC Guayaquil
Club 9 de Octubre	1-3 L	2-2 D
CD Cuenca Jrs	1-0 W	0-0 D
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	0-0 D	3-0 W
Gualaceo SC	3-2 W	0-0 D
Vinotinto Ecuador	2-0 W	0-1 L
LDU Portoviejo	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Juniors (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Juniors

DWWWWDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	1-3	1	6	L
04/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/08	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
20/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/08	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	3-2	3	7	W
23/07	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
17/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
11/07	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Atletico FC Guayaquil

DWDWLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
04/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-2	4	13	D
27/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
20/08	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	3-0	3-0	1	3	W
15/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
30/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	4-1	2	6	W
11/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Juniors vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Juniors win (48%). Probabilities: Independiente Juniors 48%, draw 30%, Atletico FC Guayaquil 23%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Juniors vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Independiente Juniors 1.28 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0.79), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Juniors vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.