Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 17/09, 22:30

Prediction: 22 de Julio vs Cumbaya

Team pages: 22 de Julio · Cumbaya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

22 de Julio0.45

Cumbaya1.93

1X2

8% 19% 73%

22 de Julio Draw Cumbaya

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-2 17%

Recent form · 10 last

22 de Julio 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLL

Cumbaya 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDDDLDLL

Head-to-head

22 de Julio 2–4 Cumbaya (6 last)

Cumbaya4-022 de Julio
22 de Julio2-1Cumbaya
22 de Julio1-3Cumbaya
Cumbaya2-022 de Julio
22 de Julio1-0Cumbaya
Cumbaya4-022 de Julio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 22 de Julio 1388 · Cumbaya 1491

	22 de Julio	Draw	Cumbaya
Our model	7%	21%	72%
Market	8%	18%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cumbaya (rating 1388 vs 1491).
H2H favours Cumbaya: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	22 de Julio	Cumbaya
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 2	0.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/17/83%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

111.00

X5.00

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.82

2 (-1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 11.00▲	Bet365 11.00
X	4.50 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	1.36 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +6’	6.25	4.50	1.36
20:45 +11’	11.00▲	5.00▲	1.22▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 22 de Julio 2–0–4 Cumbaya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	4-0 HT 1-0	22 de Julio
17/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	22 de Julio	2-1	Cumbaya
15/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	22 de Julio	1-3 HT 0-2	Cumbaya
16/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	2-0 HT 1-0	22 de Julio
10/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	22 de Julio	1-0 HT 0-0	Cumbaya
01/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	4-0 HT 3-0	22 de Julio

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LDU Portoviejo	25	9	7	9	20	22	34
2	Gualaceo SC	25	10	8	7	26	16	32
3	CD Vargas Torres	25	8	10	7	22	18	31
4	Cumbaya	25	5	12	8	23	25	27
5	El Nacional	25	3	6	16	18	37	12
6	22 de Julio	25	4	3	18	10	40	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	22 de Julio	Cumbaya
El Nacional	0-3 L	1-0 W
CD Vargas Torres	0-3 L	1-2 L
LDU Portoviejo	0-2 L	0-0 D
CD Cuenca Jrs	0-1 L	0-0 D
Club 9 de Octubre	0-1 L	0-0 D
Gualaceo SC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cumbaya (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

22 de Julio

LLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
27/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-3	9	2	L
21/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-2	–	–	L
14/08	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/08	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
25/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/07	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/07	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-4	2	4	L

Cumbaya

WDDDDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
04/09	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
26/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-3	0-3	5	3	L
13/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
08/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
30/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
22/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
08/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 22 de Julio vs Cumbaya?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cumbaya win (73%). Probabilities: 22 de Julio 8%, draw 19%, Cumbaya 73%.

How many goals are expected in 22 de Julio vs Cumbaya?

The model expects 2.38 goals (22 de Julio 0.45 · Cumbaya 1.93), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in 22 de Julio vs Cumbaya?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.