Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 08/09, 01:00

Prediction: Excursionistas vs CA Ituzaingo

Team pages: Excursionistas · CA Ituzaingo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Excursionistas1.87

CA Ituzaingo0.53

1X2

69% 21% 9%

Excursionistas Draw CA Ituzaingo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Excursionistas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDWLWWWL

CA Ituzaingo 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLDDLL

Head-to-head

Excursionistas 2–2–2 CA Ituzaingo (6 last)

CA Ituzaingo1-3Excursionistas
CA Ituzaingo1-0Excursionistas
CA Ituzaingo1-1Excursionistas
Excursionistas0-0CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo2-1Excursionistas
Excursionistas2-0CA Ituzaingo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1538 · CA Ituzaingo 1426

	Excursionistas	Draw	CA Ituzaingo
Our model	69%	22%	9%
Market	70%	20%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1538 vs 1426).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Excursionistas	CA Ituzaingo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:53 +15’	1.28	4.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 2–2–2 CA Ituzaingo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-3 HT 1-2	Excursionistas
20/11/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-0 HT 1-0	Excursionistas
14/10/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-1 HT 1-0	Excursionistas
16/06/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Excursionistas	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
10/02/20 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	2-1 HT 1-0	Excursionistas
19/08/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Excursionistas	2-0 HT 2-0	CA Ituzaingo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	33	18	8	7	49	27	62
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	33	16	12	5	44	22	60
3	Atletico Camioneros	33	16	12	5	39	20	60
4	Villa Dalmine	33	16	12	5	35	16	60
5	Talleres Remedios	33	17	9	7	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	33	15	10	8	38	25	55
7	Real Pilar	33	14	10	9	37	32	52
8	Deportivo Armenio	33	13	8	12	35	37	47
9	Club Comunicaciones	33	12	10	11	33	31	46
10	Deportivo Laferrere	33	12	10	11	39	42	46
11	CS Dock Sud	33	10	13	10	38	34	43
12	Argentino Merlo	33	10	11	12	30	32	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	33	9	13	11	31	36	40
14	Deportivo Merlo	33	9	12	12	34	48	39
15	Villa San Carlos	33	9	11	13	34	38	38
16	Argentino Quilmes	33	8	13	12	28	35	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	33	8	12	13	25	33	36
18	CSD Flandria	33	9	8	16	28	39	35
19	Defensores Unidos	33	7	12	14	28	36	33
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	33	7	12	14	21	35	33
21	UAI Urquiza	33	3	19	11	15	29	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	33	1	11	21	19	51	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Excursionistas	CA Ituzaingo
Arsenal de Sarandi	0-3 L	0-2 L
Argentino Merlo	2-0 W	1-1 D
Talleres Remedios	2-1 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Laferrere	5-3 W	0-2 L
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Excursionistas

LWDDWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
26/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	5-3	2	7	W
08/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
25/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
18/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
14/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
10/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	7	7	L

CA Ituzaingo

DLLDDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
25/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
01/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
18/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
15/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
10/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs CA Ituzaingo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (69%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 69%, draw 21%, CA Ituzaingo 9%.

How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs CA Ituzaingo?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Excursionistas 1.87 · CA Ituzaingo 0.53), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs CA Ituzaingo?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.