Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Laferrere vs Villa San Carlos

Team pages: Deportivo Laferrere · Villa San Carlos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Deportivo Laferrere1.31

Villa San Carlos1.02

1X2

42% 31% 28%

Deportivo Laferrere Draw Villa San Carlos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Laferrere 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLWDD

Villa San Carlos 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWWLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Laferrere 2–1–3 Villa San Carlos (6 last)

Villa San Carlos0-2Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere0-1Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos2-0Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere1-2Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos2-2Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere6-3Villa San Carlos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Laferrere 1519 · Villa San Carlos 1515

	Deportivo Laferrere	Draw	Villa San Carlos
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	42%	31%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Villa San Carlos: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Laferrere	Villa San Carlos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.88

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:35 +16’	2.15	2.88	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Laferrere 2–1–3 Villa San Carlos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	0-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Laferrere
04/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	0-1 HT 0-0	Villa San Carlos
15/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Laferrere
04/08/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	1-2 HT 1-0	Villa San Carlos
16/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	2-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Laferrere
08/04/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	6-3 HT 3-2	Villa San Carlos

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	34	19	8	7	51	28	65
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	34	17	12	5	45	22	63
3	Atletico Camioneros	34	17	12	5	40	20	63
4	Talleres Remedios	34	18	9	7	37	17	63
5	Villa Dalmine	34	16	12	6	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	34	16	10	8	41	26	58
7	Real Pilar	34	14	10	10	37	34	52
8	Club Comunicaciones	34	13	10	11	34	31	49
9	Deportivo Armenio	34	13	9	12	35	37	48
10	Deportivo Laferrere	34	12	11	11	41	44	47
11	CS Dock Sud	34	10	13	11	38	35	43
12	Argentino Merlo	34	10	11	13	30	34	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	34	9	14	11	31	36	41
14	Deportivo Merlo	34	9	13	12	34	48	40
15	Villa San Carlos	34	9	12	13	34	38	39
16	Argentino Quilmes	34	8	13	13	28	36	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	34	8	13	13	27	35	37
18	CSD Flandria	34	9	8	17	29	42	35
19	Defensores Unidos	34	7	13	14	28	36	34
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	34	7	13	14	21	35	34
21	UAI Urquiza	34	4	19	11	17	29	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	34	1	11	22	20	53	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Laferrere

WWLWDLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
25/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
22/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	8	3	L
15/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	3-5	6	7	L
09/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
26/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
18/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
15/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	2	3	W

Villa San Carlos

LLWDWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
30/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	12	6	W
23/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
16/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
08/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
26/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
18/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
14/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Laferrere vs Villa San Carlos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Laferrere win (42%). Probabilities: Deportivo Laferrere 42%, draw 31%, Villa San Carlos 28%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Laferrere vs Villa San Carlos?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Deportivo Laferrere 1.31 · Villa San Carlos 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Laferrere vs Villa San Carlos?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.