Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 12/09, 21:00

Prediction: CA Brown de Adrogue vs San Martin De Burzaco

Team pages: CA Brown de Adrogue · San Martin De Burzaco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.76Total

CA Brown de Adrogue1.04

San Martin De Burzaco0.71

1X2

43% 33% 25%

CA Brown de Adrogue Draw San Martin De Burzaco

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Brown de Adrogue 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLDLDD

San Martin De Burzaco 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLWLD

Head-to-head

CA Brown de Adrogue 1–2–0 San Martin De Burzaco (3 last)

San Martin De Burzaco0-0CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue0-0San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco1-2CA Brown de Adrogue

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Brown de Adrogue 1479 · San Martin De Burzaco 1459

	CA Brown de Adrogue	Draw	San Martin De Burzaco
Our model	41%	35%	23%
Market	44%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.76 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Brown de Adrogue	San Martin De Burzaco
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.3	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X2.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:51 +7’	2.05	2.90	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Brown de Adrogue 1–2–0 San Martin De Burzaco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Brown de Adrogue
08/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	0-0 HT 0-0	San Martin De Burzaco
19/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	1-2 HT 0-1	CA Brown de Adrogue

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	34	19	8	7	51	28	65
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	34	17	12	5	45	22	63
3	Atletico Camioneros	34	17	12	5	40	20	63
4	Talleres Remedios	34	18	9	7	37	17	63
5	Villa Dalmine	34	16	12	6	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	34	16	10	8	41	26	58
7	Real Pilar	34	14	10	10	37	34	52
8	Club Comunicaciones	34	13	10	11	34	31	49
9	Deportivo Armenio	34	13	9	12	35	37	48
10	Deportivo Laferrere	34	12	11	11	41	44	47
11	CS Dock Sud	34	10	13	11	38	35	43
12	Argentino Merlo	34	10	11	13	30	34	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	34	9	14	11	31	36	41
14	Deportivo Merlo	34	9	13	12	34	48	40
15	Villa San Carlos	34	9	12	13	34	38	39
16	Argentino Quilmes	34	8	13	13	28	36	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	34	8	13	13	27	35	37
18	CSD Flandria	34	9	8	17	29	42	35
19	Defensores Unidos	34	7	13	14	28	36	34
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	34	7	13	14	21	35	34
21	UAI Urquiza	34	4	19	11	17	29	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	34	1	11	22	20	53	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Brown de Adrogue

LLWDWLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
29/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
25/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
22/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
15/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
08/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
31/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
25/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
15/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	3	L

San Martin De Burzaco

WLLDLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
25/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	3-2	7	7	W
22/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	8	L
15/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
09/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
02/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
25/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
18/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	10	7	L
15/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Brown de Adrogue vs San Martin De Burzaco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Brown de Adrogue win (43%). Probabilities: CA Brown de Adrogue 43%, draw 33%, San Martin De Burzaco 25%.

How many goals are expected in CA Brown de Adrogue vs San Martin De Burzaco?

The model expects 1.76 goals (CA Brown de Adrogue 1.04 · San Martin De Burzaco 0.71), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Brown de Adrogue vs San Martin De Burzaco?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.