Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 13/09, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo

Team pages: Argentino Quilmes · Deportivo Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.61Total

Argentino Quilmes0.92

Deportivo Merlo0.68

1X2

40% 34% 26%

Argentino Quilmes Draw Deportivo Merlo

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0 21%

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Quilmes 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDDDDWLLLL

Deportivo Merlo 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDDLLD

Head-to-head

Argentino Quilmes 3–1–2 Deportivo Merlo (6 last)

Deportivo Merlo1-0Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes3-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-0Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes0-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo0-1Argentino Quilmes
Deportivo Merlo1-2Argentino Quilmes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Quilmes 1461 · Deportivo Merlo 1462

	Argentino Quilmes	Draw	Deportivo Merlo
Our model	38%	37%	25%
Market	41%	32%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.61 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Argentino Quilmes: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Quilmes	Deportivo Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.1	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.80

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.88

Under 1.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.28
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.43 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:56 +1’	2.20	2.80	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:24 +147’	2.31	2.65	3.39
00:53 +62’	2.28▼	2.66▲	3.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Quilmes 3–1–2 Deportivo Merlo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Quilmes
09/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	3-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
23/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Quilmes
24/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
04/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-1 HT 0-1	Argentino Quilmes
30/07/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-2 HT 1-1	Argentino Quilmes

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	34	19	8	7	51	28	65
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	34	17	12	5	45	22	63
3	Atletico Camioneros	34	17	12	5	40	20	63
4	Talleres Remedios	34	18	9	7	37	17	63
5	Villa Dalmine	34	16	12	6	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	34	16	10	8	41	26	58
7	Real Pilar	35	15	10	10	38	34	55
8	Club Comunicaciones	35	13	11	11	36	33	50
9	Deportivo Armenio	34	13	9	12	35	37	48
10	Deportivo Laferrere	34	12	11	11	41	44	47
11	CS Dock Sud	34	10	13	11	38	35	43
12	San Martin De Burzaco	34	9	14	11	31	36	41
13	Argentino Merlo	35	10	11	14	30	35	41
14	Deportivo Merlo	34	9	13	12	34	48	40
15	Villa San Carlos	34	9	12	13	34	38	39
16	Argentino Quilmes	34	8	13	13	28	36	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	34	8	13	13	27	35	37
18	CSD Flandria	34	9	8	17	29	42	35
19	Defensores Unidos	34	7	13	14	28	36	34
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	34	7	13	14	21	35	34
21	UAI Urquiza	34	4	19	11	17	29	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	35	1	12	22	22	55	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino Quilmes	Deportivo Merlo
Atletico Camioneros	0-1 L	0-0 D
Sportivo Italiano	0-2 L	0-4 L
San Martin De Burzaco	2-3 L	1-1 D
Villa San Carlos	0-2 L	1-2 L
Deportivo Liniers	1-0 W	1-1 D
Real Pilar	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Merlo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Quilmes

WDDDDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
29/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
25/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-3	7	7	L
23/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
16/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
01/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
25/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
18/07	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
14/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	9	W

Deportivo Merlo

WDLDLDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
27/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-4	7	1	L
02/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
26/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	10	D
15/07	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-2	0	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Argentino Quilmes win (40%). Probabilities: Argentino Quilmes 40%, draw 34%, Deportivo Merlo 26%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model expects 1.61 goals (Argentino Quilmes 0.92 · Deportivo Merlo 0.68), with a 54% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.