Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano

Team pages: Deportivo Armenio · Sportivo Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Deportivo Armenio1.06

Sportivo Italiano1.03

1X2

34% 32% 33%

Deportivo Armenio Draw Sportivo Italiano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Armenio 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Italiano 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo Armenio 3–2–1 Sportivo Italiano (6 last)

Sportivo Italiano1-0Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio1-1Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano0-1Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio3-2Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano1-1Deportivo Armenio
Sportivo Italiano0-1Deportivo Armenio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Armenio 1513 · Sportivo Italiano 1543

	Deportivo Armenio	Draw	Sportivo Italiano
Our model	34%	33%	33%
Market	35%	32%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Armenio: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Armenio	Sportivo Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X2.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:49 +3’	2.60	2.80	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Armenio 3–2–1 Sportivo Italiano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Armenio
01/12/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Armenio	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
22/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Armenio
12/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Armenio	3-2 HT 1-1	Sportivo Italiano
11/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Armenio
07/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Armenio

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	34	19	8	7	51	28	65
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	34	17	12	5	45	22	63
3	Atletico Camioneros	34	17	12	5	40	20	63
4	Talleres Remedios	34	18	9	7	37	17	63
5	Villa Dalmine	34	16	12	6	35	17	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	34	16	10	8	41	26	58
7	Real Pilar	34	14	10	10	37	34	52
8	Club Comunicaciones	34	13	10	11	34	31	49
9	Deportivo Armenio	34	13	9	12	35	37	48
10	Deportivo Laferrere	34	12	11	11	41	44	47
11	CS Dock Sud	34	10	13	11	38	35	43
12	Argentino Merlo	34	10	11	13	30	34	41
13	San Martin De Burzaco	34	9	14	11	31	36	41
14	Deportivo Merlo	34	9	13	12	34	48	40
15	Villa San Carlos	34	9	12	13	34	38	39
16	Argentino Quilmes	34	8	13	13	28	36	37
17	Deportivo Liniers	34	8	13	13	27	35	37
18	CSD Flandria	34	9	8	17	29	42	35
19	Defensores Unidos	34	7	13	14	28	36	34
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	34	7	13	14	21	35	34
21	UAI Urquiza	34	4	19	11	17	29	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	34	1	11	22	20	53	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Armenio	Sportivo Italiano
San Martin De Burzaco	0-0 D	2-1 W
Villa San Carlos	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Italiano (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Armenio

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
30/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
26/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
22/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
16/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
08/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
01/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
25/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
18/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-2	6	5	D
14/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	1	5	W

Sportivo Italiano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
29/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	0	6	W
25/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	4	6	W
09/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
01/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	11	D
25/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	1	7	W
14/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Armenio win (34%). Probabilities: Deportivo Armenio 34%, draw 32%, Sportivo Italiano 33%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Deportivo Armenio 1.06 · Sportivo Italiano 1.03), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.