Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 13/09, 01:00
Prediction: Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine
Team pages: Excursionistas · Villa Dalmine
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.79Total
Excursionistas1.09
Villa Dalmine0.7
1X2
Excursionistas
Draw
Villa Dalmine
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Excursionistas
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Villa Dalmine
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Excursionistas
1–2–2
Villa Dalmine
(5 last)
- Villa Dalmine1-0Excursionistas
- Villa Dalmine2-1Excursionistas
- Excursionistas3-0Villa Dalmine
- Villa Dalmine0-0Excursionistas
- Excursionistas2-2Villa Dalmine
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1533 · Villa Dalmine 1527
| Excursionistas | Draw | Villa Dalmine | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 35% | 22% |
| Market | 45% | 31% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Villa Dalmine: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excursionistas | Villa Dalmine | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.3 | 2.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 1–2–2 Villa Dalmine
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa Dalmine | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Excursionistas |
| 15/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa Dalmine | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Excursionistas |
| 20/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Villa Dalmine |
| 01/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa Dalmine | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Excursionistas |
| 13/04/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Villa Dalmine |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 28 | 65 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 45 | 22 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Camioneros | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 40 | 20 | 63 |
| 4 | Talleres Remedios | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 37 | 17 | 63 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 35 | 17 | 60 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 41 | 26 | 58 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 35 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 38 | 34 | 55 |
| 8 | Club Comunicaciones | 35 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 33 | 50 |
| 9 | Deportivo Armenio | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 37 | 48 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | 47 |
| 11 | CS Dock Sud | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 38 | 35 | 43 |
| 12 | San Martin De Burzaco | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 31 | 36 | 41 |
| 13 | Argentino Merlo | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 30 | 35 | 41 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 34 | 48 | 40 |
| 15 | Villa San Carlos | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 28 | 36 | 37 |
| 17 | Deportivo Liniers | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 35 | 37 |
| 18 | CSD Flandria | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 29 | 42 | 35 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 28 | 36 | 34 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 21 | 35 | 34 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 34 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 17 | 29 | 31 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 35 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 22 | 55 | 15 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Excursionistas | Villa Dalmine |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal de Sarandi | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Argentino Merlo | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Talleres Remedios | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Laferrere | 5-3 W | 2-0 W |
| CA Brown de Adrogue | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Armenio | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| CSD Flandria | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Argentino Quilmes | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Defensores Unidos | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Excursionistas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 26/08 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 5-3 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 14/07 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
Villa Dalmine
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/08 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 15/07 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (44%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 44%, draw 33%, Villa Dalmine 23%.
How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
The model expects 1.79 goals (Excursionistas 1.09 · Villa Dalmine 0.7), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.