Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 05/09, 18:00
Prediction: Aris Limassol vs Omonia Nicosia
Team pages: Aris Limassol
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Aris Limassol1.29
Omonia Nicosia1.76
1X2
Aris Limassol
Draw
Omonia Nicosia
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Aris Limassol
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Omonia Nicosia
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aris Limassol
0–3–3
Omonia Nicosia
(6 last)
- Omonia Nicosia3-0Aris Limassol
- Aris Limassol2-2Omonia Nicosia
- Aris Limassol3-5Omonia Nicosia
- Omonia Nicosia0-0Aris Limassol
- Aris Limassol3-3Omonia Nicosia
- Omonia Nicosia2-1Aris Limassol
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aris Limassol 1473 · Omonia Nicosia 1631
| Aris Limassol | Draw | Omonia Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Omonia Nicosia (rating 1473 vs 1631).
- H2H favours Omonia Nicosia: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aris Limassol | Omonia Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 2.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 1.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.8 | 2.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aris Limassol 0–3–3 Omonia Nicosia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Omonia Nicosia | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Aris Limassol |
| 21/03/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Aris Limassol | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Omonia Nicosia |
| 25/01/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Aris Limassol | 3-5 HT 2-4 | Omonia Nicosia |
| 05/10/25 Cyprus Division 1 | Omonia Nicosia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Aris Limassol |
| 12/05/25 Cyprus Division 1 | Aris Limassol | 3-3 HT 1-3 | Omonia Nicosia |
| 06/04/25 Cyprus Division 1 | Omonia Nicosia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Aris Limassol |
Standings · Cyprus Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Pafos FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | AEK Larnaca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | AEL Limassol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Nea Salamis Famagusta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Nicosia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Apollon Limassol | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Aris Limassol | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Omonia Aradippou | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Omonia Nicosia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Apoel Nicosia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Anorthosis Famagusta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | APK Karmotissa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aris Limassol | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| Apollon Limassol | 2-2 D | 5-2 W |
| AEK Larnaca | 3-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Pafos FC | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Apoel Nicosia | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Omonia Nicosia (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aris Limassol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 22/05 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 06/05 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/04 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
Omonia Nicosia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/04 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 21/03 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aris Limassol vs Omonia Nicosia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Omonia Nicosia win (47%). Probabilities: Aris Limassol 27%, draw 26%, Omonia Nicosia 47%.
How many goals are expected in Aris Limassol vs Omonia Nicosia?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Aris Limassol 1.29 · Omonia Nicosia 1.76), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Aris Limassol vs Omonia Nicosia?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.