Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 05/09, 18:00
Prediction: Apoel Nicosia vs AEL Limassol
Team pages: Apoel Nicosia · AEL Limassol
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Apoel Nicosia1.97
AEL Limassol0.98
1X2
Apoel Nicosia
Draw
AEL Limassol
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Apoel Nicosia
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
AEL Limassol
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Apoel Nicosia
4–1–1
AEL Limassol
(6 last)
- AEL Limassol2-3Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia1-2AEL Limassol
- AEL Limassol1-2Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia4-0AEL Limassol
- AEL Limassol1-1Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia1-0AEL Limassol
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Apoel Nicosia 1445 · AEL Limassol 1521
| Apoel Nicosia | Draw | AEL Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 59% | 24% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AEL Limassol (rating 1445 vs 1521).
- H2H favours Apoel Nicosia: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Apoel Nicosia | AEL Limassol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 1.7 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Apoel Nicosia 4–1–1 AEL Limassol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Cyprus Division 1 | AEL Limassol | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 23/11/25 Cyprus Division 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 1-2 HT 1-0 | AEL Limassol |
| 16/02/25 Cyprus Division 1 | AEL Limassol | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 10/11/24 Cyprus Division 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 4-0 HT 2-0 | AEL Limassol |
| 11/02/24 Cyprus Division 1 | AEL Limassol | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 11/11/23 Cyprus Division 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | AEL Limassol |
Standings · Cyprus Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Pafos FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | AEK Larnaca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | AEL Limassol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Nea Salamis Famagusta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Nicosia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Apollon Limassol | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Aris Limassol | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Omonia Aradippou | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Omonia Nicosia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Apoel Nicosia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Anorthosis Famagusta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | APK Karmotissa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Apoel Nicosia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 22/05 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 06/05 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 14/04 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
AEL Limassol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Akritas Chlorakas Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 27/04 | Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 17/04 | Enosis Paralimni Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Omonia Aradippou Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Ethnikos Achnas Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 14/03 | Omonia Aradippou Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/03 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Apoel Nicosia vs AEL Limassol?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Apoel Nicosia win (59%). Probabilities: Apoel Nicosia 59%, draw 24%, AEL Limassol 17%.
How many goals are expected in Apoel Nicosia vs AEL Limassol?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Apoel Nicosia 1.97 · AEL Limassol 0.98), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Apoel Nicosia vs AEL Limassol?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.