Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 12/09, 18:00

Prediction: AEK Larnaca vs Pafos FC

Team pages: AEK Larnaca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

AEK Larnaca1.49

Pafos FC1.32

1X2

40% 28% 32%

AEK Larnaca Draw Pafos FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AEK Larnaca 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWLWDDWWW

Pafos FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDLLWDWW

Head-to-head

AEK Larnaca 1–4–1 Pafos FC (6 last)

AEK Larnaca2-2Pafos FC
Pafos FC1-1AEK Larnaca
Pafos FC1-2AEK Larnaca
Pafos FC1-1AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca2-4Pafos FC
AEK Larnaca0-0Pafos FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AEK Larnaca 1553 · Pafos FC 1521

	AEK Larnaca	Draw	Pafos FC
Our model	40%	27%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AEK Larnaca	Pafos FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.4	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.25

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +22’	2.30	3.25	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AEK Larnaca 1–4–1 Pafos FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Cyprus Division 1	AEK Larnaca	2-2 HT 1-1	Pafos FC
18/04/26 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	1-1 HT 1-0	AEK Larnaca
25/01/26 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	1-2 HT 0-1	AEK Larnaca
30/10/25 Cyprus Super Cup	Pafos FC	1-1 HT 1-1	AEK Larnaca
05/10/25 Cyprus Division 1	AEK Larnaca	2-4 HT 1-2	Pafos FC
24/05/25 Cyprus Cup	AEK Larnaca	0-0 HT 0-0	Pafos FC

Standings · Cyprus Division 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AEK Larnaca	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
2	Omonia 29is Maiou	2	1	1	0	5	2	4
3	Apollon Limassol	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
4	Omonia Aradippou	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Apoel Nicosia	2	1	0	1	7	3	3
6	Pafos FC	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
7	AEL Limassol	2	1	0	1	2	6	3
8	Nea Salamis Famagusta	2	0	1	1	4	7	1
9	Olympiakos Nicosia	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
10	Aris Limassol	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Omonia Nicosia	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
12	APK Karmotissa	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
13	Anorthosis Famagusta	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
13	Krasava ENY Ypsonas	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AEK Larnaca	Pafos FC
Apoel Nicosia	3-1 W	2-0 W
Aris Limassol	4-3 W	2-0 W
Omonia Nicosia	1-1 D	0-2 L
Apollon Limassol	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AEK Larnaca (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AEK Larnaca

LDWLWDDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
29/08	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
22/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	4-3	1	5	W
16/05	Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
10/05	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
06/05	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
03/05	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
25/04	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
18/04	Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
14/04	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-1	0-2	13	2	L

Pafos FC

LDDDLLWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
22/05	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
16/05	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
10/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
06/05	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
03/05	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
26/04	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-2	3-3	7	4	D
18/04	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
14/04	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
04/04	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-2	0-2	5	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AEK Larnaca win (40%). Probabilities: AEK Larnaca 40%, draw 28%, Pafos FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos FC?

The model expects 2.81 goals (AEK Larnaca 1.49 · Pafos FC 1.32), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.