Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 29/08, 12:00

Prediction: Leevon PPK vs SK Super Nova II

Team pages: Leevon PPK · SK Super Nova II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Leevon PPK2.11

SK Super Nova II1.05

1X2

61% 21% 17%

Leevon PPK Draw SK Super Nova II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Leevon PPK 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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SK Super Nova II 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leevon PPK 1–0 SK Super Nova II (1 last)

SK Super Nova II2-3Leevon PPK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leevon PPK 1594 · SK Super Nova II 1467

	Leevon PPK	Draw	SK Super Nova II
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	62%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leevon PPK (rating 1594 vs 1467).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leevon PPK	SK Super Nova II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.7	1.5 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.33

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
22:32 +16’	1.45	4.33	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leevon PPK 1–0–0 SK Super Nova II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	SK Super Nova II	2-3 HT 2-2	Leevon PPK

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	17	14	2	1	48	15	44
2	Metta/LU	17	14	2	1	71	14	44
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	17	12	3	2	31	20	39
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	17	11	5	1	37	16	38
5	JDFS Alberts	17	9	4	4	35	24	31
6	Marupes SC	18	8	1	9	29	30	25
7	SK Super Nova II	18	6	6	6	25	26	24
8	Skanstes SK	17	6	2	9	31	33	20
9	Riga FC II	17	6	2	9	24	33	20
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	16	3	3	10	21	45	12
11	RFS II	17	3	3	11	23	48	12
12	JFK Ventspils	16	2	5	9	18	28	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	17	2	4	11	21	47	10
14	Rezeknes FA	17	1	2	14	13	48	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leevon PPK	SK Super Nova II
JFK Ventspils	2-1 W	2-0 W
RFS II	2-1 W	1-1 D
Riga FC II	3-2 W	1-2 L
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	4-1 W	3-1 W
Marupes SC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Skanstes SK	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leevon PPK (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leevon PPK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
16/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	7	W
10/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	3-2	9	8	W
02/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
26/04	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-2	3-2	11	7	W
18/04	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
12/04	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
28/03	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
22/03	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
08/11	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-2	5	3	W

SK Super Nova II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
15/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
08/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	10	L
25/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
19/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
05/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
13/06	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	3-7	5	3	L
26/05	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leevon PPK vs SK Super Nova II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leevon PPK win (61%). Probabilities: Leevon PPK 61%, draw 21%, SK Super Nova II 17%.

How many goals are expected in Leevon PPK vs SK Super Nova II?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Leevon PPK 2.11 · SK Super Nova II 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leevon PPK vs SK Super Nova II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.