Football · Iraq Stars League · 29/08, 21:30

Prediction: Al Karkh vs Al Kahrabaa

Team pages: Al Karkh · Al Kahrabaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Al Karkh1.4

Al Kahrabaa1.19

1X2

40% 29% 30%

Al Karkh Draw Al Kahrabaa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karkh 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLDLL

Al Kahrabaa 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDWLDD

Head-to-head

Al Karkh 1–4–1 Al Kahrabaa (6 last)

Al Kahrabaa1-3Al Karkh
Al Karkh1-1Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa2-0Al Karkh
Al Karkh1-1Al Kahrabaa
Al Karkh3-3Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa2-2Al Karkh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karkh 1500 · Al Kahrabaa 1506

	Al Karkh	Draw	Al Kahrabaa
Our model	41%	29%	31%
Market	40%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karkh	Al Kahrabaa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.3	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	6.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +17’	2.25	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karkh 1–4–1 Al Kahrabaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	1-3 HT 0-2	Al Karkh
31/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Kahrabaa
18/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	2-0 HT 1-0	Al Karkh
30/11/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Kahrabaa
18/06/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	3-3 HT 3-1	Al Kahrabaa
04/12/23 Iraq League	Al Kahrabaa	2-2 HT 0-1	Al Karkh

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mosul FC	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
2	Al Minaa	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
3	Erbil SC	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
4	Al Zawra'a	3	1	2	0	5	1	5
5	Al Naft SC	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
6	Al Karma	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
7	Al Talaba	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
7	Diyala FC	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Zakho	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
10	Al Shorta SC	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
11	Al Jolan SC	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
12	Al Gharraf	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
13	Duhok	3	0	3	0	5	5	3
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
16	Al Kahrabaa	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
17	Karbalaa FC	3	0	2	1	2	5	2
18	Naft Maysan	3	0	2	1	0	4	2
19	Newroz SC	3	0	1	2	3	5	1
20	Al Karkh	3	0	0	3	0	4	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karkh	Al Kahrabaa
Erbil SC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Al Gharraf	2-2 D	2-2 D
Amanat Baghdad	2-1 W	1-0 W
Zakho	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Karkh (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karkh

WLWWDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
20/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/06	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
20/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	4-1	5-2	4	3	W
15/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	6	8	D
11/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
06/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	3-1	2	7	W
02/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/04	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-1	1	6	W

Al Kahrabaa

LLDWWDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
20/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
27/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
11/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
06/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	5	7	D
27/04	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
23/04	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karkh vs Al Kahrabaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karkh win (40%). Probabilities: Al Karkh 40%, draw 29%, Al Kahrabaa 30%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karkh vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Al Karkh 1.4 · Al Kahrabaa 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karkh vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.