Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 06/09, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico Barinas vs Yaracuyanos

Team pages: Atletico Barinas · Yaracuyanos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Atletico Barinas1.51

Yaracuyanos1.78

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Atletico Barinas Draw Yaracuyanos

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Barinas 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLLLDL

Yaracuyanos 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWDWDW

Head-to-head

Atletico Barinas 1–1 Yaracuyanos (2 last)

Yaracuyanos1-2Atletico Barinas
Atletico Barinas1-4Yaracuyanos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Barinas 1464 · Yaracuyanos 1556

	Atletico Barinas	Draw	Yaracuyanos
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yaracuyanos (rating 1464 vs 1556).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Barinas	Yaracuyanos
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.4	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +4’	2.88	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Barinas 1–0–1 Yaracuyanos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	1-2 HT 0-2	Atletico Barinas
12/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	1-4 HT 1-1	Yaracuyanos

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	23	14	6	3	40	20	48
2	Barquisimeto	23	11	7	5	37	25	40
3	Urena SC	23	10	9	4	37	25	39
4	Yaracuyanos	23	10	7	6	31	24	37
5	Zamora II	23	8	7	8	34	33	31
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	23	8	5	10	30	29	29
7	Atletico El Vigia	24	7	6	11	27	40	27
8	Atletico Barinas	23	7	3	13	43	53	24
9	Real Frontera	23	3	2	18	19	49	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Barinas	Yaracuyanos
Atletico El Vigia	1-2 L	0-0 D
Urena SC	1-1 D	4-3 W
Barquisimeto	1-5 L	0-0 D
Zamora II	2-3 L	2-1 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	3-5 L	0-0 D
Real Frontera	3-1 W	2-0 W
CD Lara	1-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Yaracuyanos (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Barinas

LWWLWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
23/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
09/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-3	2-3	6	4	L
02/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-3	3-5	4	6	L
29/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L
06/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
31/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
20/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	7	2	L

Yaracuyanos

WDLDDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	4-3	5	6	W
30/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
14/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
08/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
02/08	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	4	10	D
25/07	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
06/06	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
31/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	13	1	D
24/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Barinas vs Yaracuyanos?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Yaracuyanos win (43%). Probabilities: Atletico Barinas 31%, draw 26%, Yaracuyanos 43%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Barinas vs Yaracuyanos?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Atletico Barinas 1.51 · Yaracuyanos 1.78), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Barinas vs Yaracuyanos?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.