Prediction: Danubio vs Penarol
- Penarol1-1Danubio
- Penarol2-0Danubio
- Danubio0-1Penarol
- Danubio0-1Penarol
- Penarol2-0Danubio
- Danubio2-1Penarol
| Danubio | Draw | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 31% | 55% |
| Market | 16% | 27% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1471 vs 1583).
- H2H favours Penarol: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Danubio | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6 | 3.1 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Danubio 1–1–4 Penarol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Danubio |
| 05/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Danubio |
| 05/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Danubio | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Penarol |
| 16/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Danubio | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
| 14/04/24 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Danubio |
| 19/11/23 Uruguay Clausura | Danubio | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Penarol |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Danubio | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Nacional De Football | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Danubio (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Danubio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 08/11 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 02/11 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 26/10 | CA River Plate Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 12/10 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 05/10 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/11 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 19/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 2-2 | 14 | 8 | D |
| 05/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Danubio vs Penarol?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penarol win (56%). Probabilities: Danubio 15%, draw 29%, Penarol 56%.
How many goals are expected in Danubio vs Penarol?
The model expects 1.82 goals (Danubio 0.53 · Penarol 1.3), with a 60% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Danubio vs Penarol?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.