Football · Uruguay Clausura · 07/09, 00:30
Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River
Team pages: Liverpool Montevideo · Boston River
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Liverpool Montevideo1.42
Boston River0.77
1X2
Liverpool Montevideo
Draw
Boston River
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Liverpool Montevideo
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Boston River
3-7-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Liverpool Montevideo
5–1–0
Boston River
(6 last)
- Boston River0-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Boston River0-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo2-1Boston River
- Boston River0-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo1-1Boston River
- Liverpool Montevideo1-0Boston River
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liverpool Montevideo 1587 · Boston River 1481
| Liverpool Montevideo | Draw | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liverpool Montevideo (rating 1587 vs 1481).
- H2H favours Liverpool Montevideo: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Liverpool Montevideo | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.9 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.4 / 0.5 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liverpool Montevideo 5–1–0 Boston River
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Boston River | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 10/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 27/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Boston River |
| 29/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 29/09/24 Uruguay Clausura | Liverpool Montevideo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Boston River |
| 23/06/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Liverpool Montevideo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Boston River |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Liverpool Montevideo | Boston River |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Cerro | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Albion FC | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 07/11 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 01/11 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 26/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/10 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | CA River Plate Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Boston River
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/11 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/10 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
4-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 04/10 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Liverpool Montevideo win (52%). Probabilities: Liverpool Montevideo 52%, draw 28%, Boston River 20%.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Liverpool Montevideo 1.42 · Boston River 0.77), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.