Football · Uruguay Clausura · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: Cerro vs Racing Club de Montevideo

Team pages: Cerro · Racing Club de Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.78Total

Cerro0.76

Racing Club de Montevideo1.02

1X2

26% 33% 41%

Cerro Draw Racing Club de Montevideo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Cerro 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDWWLD

Racing Club de Montevideo 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDLWDWDW

Head-to-head

Cerro 2–1–3 Racing Club de Montevideo (6 last)

Cerro1-0Racing Club de Montevideo
Racing Club de Montevideo1-0Cerro
Racing Club de Montevideo2-1Cerro
Cerro1-2Racing Club de Montevideo
Racing Club de Montevideo0-1Cerro
Cerro1-1Racing Club de Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerro 1507 · Racing Club de Montevideo 1533

	Cerro	Draw	Racing Club de Montevideo
Our model	25%	35%	40%
Market	27%	31%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 1.78 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Racing Club de Montevideo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerro	Racing Club de Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.3	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.30

X2.88

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.74 ★
X	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.25
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:39 +1’	3.30	2.88	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:34	3.83	3.25	1.96
00:39 +1’	3.74▼	3.25	2.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro 2–1–3 Racing Club de Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Cerro	1-0 HT 1-0	Racing Club de Montevideo
08/03/26 Uruguay Apertura	Racing Club de Montevideo	1-0 HT 0-0	Cerro
15/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga	Racing Club de Montevideo	2-1 HT 0-0	Cerro
10/08/25 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro	1-2 HT 1-1	Racing Club de Montevideo
08/02/25 Uruguay Apertura	Racing Club de Montevideo	0-1 HT 0-0	Cerro
20/10/24 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro	1-1 HT 0-1	Racing Club de Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	12	3	16
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	7	5	11
3	Racing Club de Montevideo	7	2	4	1	4	3	10
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	5	5	9
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	4	4	9
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	6	10	9
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	5	10	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerro	Racing Club de Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo	0-4 L	2-2 D
Albion FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Danubio	1-0 W	0-0 D
Nacional De Football	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Racing Club de Montevideo (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerro

LWWWDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-4	1	5	L
15/08	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
09/08	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	0	4	W
09/11	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
01/11	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
25/10	Penarol Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	4	9	W
18/10	Torque Uruguay Clausura	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
12/10	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
05/10	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura	0-2	0-2	2	8	L

Racing Club de Montevideo

LDDDLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
23/08	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
11/08	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	2-2	2-2	5	4	D
07/11	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	4	9	W
02/11	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
25/10	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
20/10	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
11/10	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
05/10	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-1	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerro vs Racing Club de Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Racing Club de Montevideo win (41%). Probabilities: Cerro 26%, draw 33%, Racing Club de Montevideo 41%.

How many goals are expected in Cerro vs Racing Club de Montevideo?

The model expects 1.78 goals (Cerro 0.76 · Racing Club de Montevideo 1.02), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerro vs Racing Club de Montevideo?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.