Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 24/10, 20:00
Prediction: Serrano vs Nova Cidade
Team pages: Serrano · Nova Cidade
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Serrano1.46
Nova Cidade0.87
1X2
Serrano
Draw
Nova Cidade
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Serrano
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Nova Cidade
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Serrano
4–2
Nova Cidade
(6 last)
- Serrano0-1Nova Cidade
- Nova Cidade3-2Serrano
- Serrano3-0Nova Cidade
- Nova Cidade2-3Serrano
- Nova Cidade1-2Serrano
- Serrano4-1Nova Cidade
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Serrano 1543 · Nova Cidade 1480
| Serrano | Draw | Nova Cidade | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 29% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Serrano (rating 1543 vs 1480).
- H2H favours Serrano: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Serrano | Nova Cidade | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 3.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 5.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Serrano 4–0–2 Nova Cidade
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Nova Cidade |
| 02/11/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Nova Cidade | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Serrano |
| 08/10/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Nova Cidade |
| 28/09/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Nova Cidade | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Serrano |
| 06/10/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Nova Cidade | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Serrano |
| 18/10/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Nova Cidade |
Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias FC | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Goytacaz | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Serrano | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Petropolis | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Macae Esporte FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 7 | Artsul Futebol Clube | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Campo Grande AC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 9 |
| 9 | Sao Cristovao RJ | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus/Campos | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Serrano | Nova Cidade |
|---|---|---|
| Macae Esporte FC | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Artsul Futebol Clube | 4-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Campo Grande AC | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Audax Rio | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Goytacaz | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Niteroiense | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Serrano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Serrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 17/10 | Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 03/10 | Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
2-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 26/09 | Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/09 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/09 | Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/12 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/11 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
Nova Cidade
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/10 | Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 12/09 | Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 05/09 | Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 08/11 | Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/11 | Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Serrano vs Nova Cidade?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Serrano win (50%). Probabilities: Serrano 50%, draw 28%, Nova Cidade 22%.
How many goals are expected in Serrano vs Nova Cidade?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Serrano 1.46 · Nova Cidade 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Serrano vs Nova Cidade?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.