Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 31/10, 19:00

Prediction: Duque de Caxias FC vs Serrano

Team pages: Duque de Caxias FC · Serrano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Duque de Caxias FC1.21

Serrano1.01

1X2

40% 30% 30%

Duque de Caxias FC Draw Serrano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Duque de Caxias FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWWWD

Serrano 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

Duque de Caxias FC 3–2–1 Serrano (6 last)

Serrano2-1Duque de Caxias FC
Duque de Caxias FC1-0Serrano
Duque de Caxias FC1-0Serrano
Serrano0-0Duque de Caxias FC
Duque de Caxias FC3-2Serrano
Duque de Caxias FC1-1Serrano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Duque de Caxias FC 1545 · Serrano 1537

	Duque de Caxias FC	Draw	Serrano
Our model	39%	31%	29%
Market	41%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Duque de Caxias FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Duque de Caxias FC	Serrano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.9	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.53 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +4’	2.20	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:11 +87’	2.50	2.71	2.87
17:02 +4’	2.53▲	2.74▲	2.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Duque de Caxias FC 3–2–1 Serrano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Serrano	2-1 HT 0-1	Duque de Caxias FC
25/05/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Duque de Caxias FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Serrano
02/12/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Serrano
25/11/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Serrano	0-0 HT 0-0	Duque de Caxias FC
03/11/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Serrano
01/10/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Serrano

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Duque de Caxias FC	9	6	1	2	15	6	19
2	Niteroiense	9	6	1	2	12	7	19
3	Serrano	9	5	3	1	12	7	18
4	Goytacaz	9	5	3	1	11	6	18
5	Petropolis	9	3	6	0	11	7	15
6	Artsul Futebol Clube	9	3	4	2	12	10	13
7	Campo Grande AC	9	3	3	3	8	11	12
8	Macae Esporte FC	9	3	2	4	9	9	11
9	Sao Cristovao RJ	9	1	4	4	4	7	7
10	Nova Cidade	9	1	3	5	8	12	6
11	Audax Rio	9	1	2	6	5	12	5
12	Carapebus/Campos	9	0	2	7	7	20	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Duque de Caxias FC	Serrano
Macae Esporte FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Artsul Futebol Clube	2-1 W	4-3 W
Campo Grande AC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Audax Rio	1-0 W	1-0 W
Goytacaz	1-2 L	0-0 D
Niteroiense	0-2 L	0-2 L
Carapebus/Campos	4-1 W	3-0 W
Nova Cidade	3-0 W	1-0 W
Bonsucesso FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Serrano (3 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Duque de Caxias FC

LWWWLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
21/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	2-1	0	5	W
17/10	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	3-0	3	9	W
10/10	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
26/09	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
19/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
11/09	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
05/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	3-0	1	9	W
22/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	3	7	L

Serrano

DLDWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
20/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
17/10	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	3-0	10	7	W
10/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
03/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	4-3	3	9	W
26/09	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
05/09	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/12	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Duque de Caxias FC vs Serrano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Duque de Caxias FC win (40%). Probabilities: Duque de Caxias FC 40%, draw 30%, Serrano 30%.

How many goals are expected in Duque de Caxias FC vs Serrano?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Duque de Caxias FC 1.21 · Serrano 1.01), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Duque de Caxias FC vs Serrano?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.