Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 31/10, 19:00

Prediction: Niteroiense vs Artsul Futebol Clube

Team pages: Niteroiense · Artsul Futebol Clube

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Niteroiense1.53

Artsul Futebol Clube1.09

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Niteroiense Draw Artsul Futebol Clube

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Niteroiense 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWLWL

Artsul Futebol Clube 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLDDLW

Head-to-head

Niteroiense 0–1–0 Artsul Futebol Clube (1 last)

Artsul Futebol Clube2-2Niteroiense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Niteroiense 1550 · Artsul Futebol Clube 1507

	Niteroiense	Draw	Artsul Futebol Clube
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Niteroiense (rating 1550 vs 1507).
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 13 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Niteroiense	Artsul Futebol Clube
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	4.3 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	7.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.22 ★
X	3.40 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	4.50 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +44’	1.67	3.40	4.50
22:13 +22’	1.83▲	3.25▼	3.80▼
08:35 +4’	1.95▲	3.20▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:31 +67’	2.20	2.90	3.15
17:02 +3’	2.22▲	2.93▲	3.19▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Niteroiense 0–1–0 Artsul Futebol Clube

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Artsul Futebol Clube	2-2 HT 2-1	Niteroiense

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Duque de Caxias FC	9	6	1	2	15	6	19
2	Niteroiense	9	6	1	2	12	7	19
3	Serrano	9	5	3	1	12	7	18
4	Goytacaz	9	5	3	1	11	6	18
5	Petropolis	9	3	6	0	11	7	15
6	Artsul Futebol Clube	9	3	4	2	12	10	13
7	Campo Grande AC	9	3	3	3	8	11	12
8	Macae Esporte FC	9	3	2	4	9	9	11
9	Sao Cristovao RJ	9	1	4	4	4	7	7
10	Nova Cidade	9	1	3	5	8	12	6
11	Audax Rio	9	1	2	6	5	12	5
12	Carapebus/Campos	9	0	2	7	7	20	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Niteroiense	Artsul Futebol Clube
Campo Grande AC	0-2 L	3-2 W
Audax Rio	2-1 W	2-0 W
Carapebus/Campos	3-1 W	0-0 D
Sao Cristovao RJ	1-0 W	1-0 W
Duque de Caxias FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Nova Cidade	1-0 W	1-1 D
Petropolis	1-1 D	1-1 D
Serrano	2-0 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Niteroiense (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Niteroiense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
21/10	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
17/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
26/09	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
19/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
12/09	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	0	7	D
05/09	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
08/11	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	5-1	3	7	W

Artsul Futebol Clube

DWWDDLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
21/10	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
16/10	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
09/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	14	7	D
03/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	3-4	8	9	L
26/09	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
19/09	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	19	6	D
12/09	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	3-2	–	–	W
06/09	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	5	15	W
08/11	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-1	9	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Niteroiense vs Artsul Futebol Clube?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Niteroiense win (46%). Probabilities: Niteroiense 46%, draw 28%, Artsul Futebol Clube 26%.

How many goals are expected in Niteroiense vs Artsul Futebol Clube?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Niteroiense 1.53 · Artsul Futebol Clube 1.09), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Niteroiense vs Artsul Futebol Clube?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.