Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 07/11, 19:00

Prediction: Petropolis vs Duque de Caxias FC

Team pages: Petropolis · Duque de Caxias FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Petropolis1.23

Duque de Caxias FC0.87

1X2

44% 31% 26%

Petropolis Draw Duque de Caxias FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Petropolis 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWDDWDDW

Duque de Caxias FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Petropolis 2–1–3 Duque de Caxias FC (6 last)

Duque de Caxias FC1-0Petropolis
Duque de Caxias FC0-2Petropolis
Petropolis1-2Duque de Caxias FC
Duque de Caxias FC2-2Petropolis
Duque de Caxias FC0-1Petropolis
Duque de Caxias FC2-0Petropolis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Petropolis 1547 · Duque de Caxias FC 1536

	Petropolis	Draw	Duque de Caxias FC
Our model	43%	32%	25%
Market	44%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Duque de Caxias FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Petropolis	Duque de Caxias FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.8	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +15’	2.00	3.00	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Petropolis 2–1–3 Duque de Caxias FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Petropolis
17/05/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Duque de Caxias FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Petropolis
29/06/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Petropolis	1-2 HT 0-1	Duque de Caxias FC
16/06/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Petropolis
26/09/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Petropolis
14/09/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Petropolis

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Goytacaz	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
2	Serrano	10	6	3	1	14	8	21
3	Duque de Caxias FC	10	6	1	3	16	8	19
4	Niteroiense	10	6	1	3	12	9	19
5	Petropolis	10	4	6	0	12	7	18
6	Artsul Futebol Clube	10	4	4	2	14	10	16
7	Campo Grande AC	10	3	3	4	8	13	12
8	Macae Esporte FC	10	3	2	5	10	11	11
9	Sao Cristovao RJ	10	2	4	4	6	8	10
10	Nova Cidade	10	1	3	6	8	13	6
11	Audax Rio	10	1	2	7	6	14	5
12	Carapebus/Campos	10	1	2	7	9	21	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Petropolis	Duque de Caxias FC
Nova Cidade	1-0 W	3-0 W
Carapebus/Campos	2-2 D	4-1 W
Serrano	1-1 D	1-2 L
Macae Esporte FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Artsul Futebol Clube	1-1 D	2-1 W
Campo Grande AC	0-0 D	3-0 W
Audax Rio	3-2 W	1-0 W
Goytacaz	2-0 W	1-2 L
Niteroiense	1-1 D	0-2 L
Sao Cristovao RJ	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 6 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Duque de Caxias FC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Petropolis

DDWWDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
24/10	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-2	2-2	7	3	D
20/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
17/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
09/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
03/10	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/09	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
19/09	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/09	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
05/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Duque de Caxias FC

WWWLLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
24/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
21/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	2-1	0	5	W
17/10	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	3-0	3	9	W
10/10	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
26/09	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
19/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
11/09	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
05/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	3-0	1	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Petropolis vs Duque de Caxias FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Petropolis win (44%). Probabilities: Petropolis 44%, draw 31%, Duque de Caxias FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Petropolis vs Duque de Caxias FC?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Petropolis 1.23 · Duque de Caxias FC 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Petropolis vs Duque de Caxias FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.