Football · Uruguay Segunda · 29/08, 15:00

Prediction: Colon FC vs Tacuarembo

Team pages: Colon FC · Tacuarembo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Colon FC1.2

Tacuarembo0.91

1X2

42% 30% 27%

Colon FC Draw Tacuarembo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Colon FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLLWWD

Tacuarembo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLWDWL

Head-to-head

Colon FC 2–2–2 Tacuarembo (6 last)

Tacuarembo2-0Colon FC
Tacuarembo2-2Colon FC
Colon FC2-0Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo1-0Colon FC
Colon FC4-2Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo1-1Colon FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Colon FC 1519 · Tacuarembo 1478

	Colon FC	Draw	Tacuarembo
Our model	41%	32%	27%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colon FC (rating 1519 vs 1478).
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Colon FC	Tacuarembo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	2.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	7.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.13
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.39 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:38 +16’	2.05	3.10	3.30
05:11 +28’	2.15▲	3.10	3.10▼
07:00 +16’	2.10▼	3.10	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:15 +1’	2.01	3.09	3.69
23:38	2.02▲	3.08▼	3.69
00:42 +3’	2.03▲	3.04▼	3.70▲
03:58	2.20▲	3.01▼	3.28▼
04:36 +2’	2.13▼	3.05▲	3.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Colon FC 2–2–2 Tacuarembo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	2-0 HT 2-0	Colon FC
21/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	2-2 HT 1-0	Colon FC
30/05/25 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Tacuarembo
27/04/25 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	1-0	Colon FC
13/10/24 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	4-2 HT 2-2	Tacuarembo
07/07/24 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	1-1 HT 1-0	Colon FC

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Colon FC	Tacuarembo
Plaza Colonia	1-1 D	0-2 L
La Luz	2-1 W	0-2 L
Cerrito	1-0 W	0-0 D
CA Atenas	1-4 L	0-2 L
Paysandu FC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	1-2 L
CA River Plate	2-1 W	1-0 W
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Colon FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Colon FC

DWDWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	13	5	D
17/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
08/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
03/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-4	6	5	L
25/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-3	7	3	L
11/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
06/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
28/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
20/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
13/06	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	3	5	D

Tacuarembo

LWLDLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	6	15	L
16/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
09/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
02/08	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
13/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
05/07	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
27/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
20/06	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	14	W
13/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Colon FC vs Tacuarembo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Colon FC win (42%). Probabilities: Colon FC 42%, draw 30%, Tacuarembo 27%.

How many goals are expected in Colon FC vs Tacuarembo?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Colon FC 1.2 · Tacuarembo 0.91), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Colon FC vs Tacuarembo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.