Football · Uruguay Segunda · 08/09, 00:00

Prediction: Plaza Colonia vs Uruguay Montevideo

Team pages: Plaza Colonia · Uruguay Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Plaza Colonia1.48

Uruguay Montevideo0.82

1X2

52% 28% 20%

Plaza Colonia Draw Uruguay Montevideo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Plaza Colonia 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWDWDL

Uruguay Montevideo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWWLLD

Head-to-head

Plaza Colonia 1–3 Uruguay Montevideo (4 last)

Uruguay Montevideo2-0Plaza Colonia
Uruguay Montevideo3-0Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia0-1Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo1-2Plaza Colonia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Plaza Colonia 1516 · Uruguay Montevideo 1494

	Plaza Colonia	Draw	Uruguay Montevideo
Our model	52%	29%	20%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Uruguay Montevideo: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Plaza Colonia	Uruguay Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	3.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.8	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.40

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.79 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.51

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:21 +29’	1.70	3.40	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +1’	1.79	3.20	4.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Plaza Colonia 1–0–3 Uruguay Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	2-0 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
20/09/24 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	3-0 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
05/06/24 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	0-1 HT 0-1	Uruguay Montevideo
30/10/23 Uruguay Cup	Uruguay Montevideo	1-2 HT 1-1	Plaza Colonia

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Plaza Colonia	Uruguay Montevideo
Club Oriental	0-2 L	1-1 D
Colon FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4-1 W	3-2 W
Rentistas	1-1 D	0-1 L
CA River Plate	2-3 L	1-1 D
La Luz	1-0 W	0-0 D
Cerrito	0-1 L	0-3 L
CA Atenas	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Colonia (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Plaza Colonia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
22/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
16/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	3-1	4-1	1	7	W
10/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	3-0	7	9	W
25/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
11/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
04/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	10	W
28/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
21/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-2	7	6	L

Uruguay Montevideo

LWLDDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
22/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
08/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
18/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/07	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
06/07	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
27/06	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-2	3-2	10	11	W
21/06	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Plaza Colonia vs Uruguay Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Plaza Colonia win (52%). Probabilities: Plaza Colonia 52%, draw 28%, Uruguay Montevideo 20%.

How many goals are expected in Plaza Colonia vs Uruguay Montevideo?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Plaza Colonia 1.48 · Uruguay Montevideo 0.82), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Plaza Colonia vs Uruguay Montevideo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.