Football · Uruguay Segunda · 29/08, 18:00

Prediction: Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz

Team pages: Uruguay Montevideo · La Luz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Uruguay Montevideo0.97

La Luz1.12

1X2

31% 31% 38%

Uruguay Montevideo Draw La Luz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Uruguay Montevideo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDWWLL

La Luz 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWLDLL

Head-to-head

Uruguay Montevideo 2–1–3 La Luz (6 last)

La Luz2-0Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz0-2Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo0-0La Luz
La Luz1-0Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Montevideo1-0La Luz
La Luz1-0Uruguay Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uruguay Montevideo 1473 · La Luz 1465

	Uruguay Montevideo	Draw	La Luz
Our model	30%	33%	38%
Market	31%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours La Luz: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uruguay Montevideo	La Luz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.3	2.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.6	6.1 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.89
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.56 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:59 +79’	2.88	3.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:15 +3’	3.02	2.83	2.46
22:30	2.98▼	2.82▼	2.49▲
23:46	2.89▼	2.82	2.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Uruguay Montevideo 2–1–3 La Luz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	La Luz	2-0 HT 1-0	Uruguay Montevideo
11/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	La Luz	0-2 HT 0-1	Uruguay Montevideo
11/10/25 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	La Luz
19/07/25 Uruguay Segunda	La Luz	1-0 HT 0-0	Uruguay Montevideo
19/10/24 Uruguay Segunda	Uruguay Montevideo	1-0 HT 0-0	La Luz
10/07/24 Uruguay Segunda	La Luz	1-0 HT 0-0	Uruguay Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uruguay Montevideo	La Luz
Cerrito	0-3 L	2-0 W
CA Atenas	1-2 L	0-4 L
CA River Plate	1-1 D	0-0 D
Club Oriental	1-1 D	0-2 L
Colon FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3-2 W	0-0 D
Rentistas	0-1 L	2-5 L
Miramar Misiones	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Uruguay Montevideo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Uruguay Montevideo

LLWLDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
08/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
18/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/07	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
06/07	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
27/06	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-2	3-2	10	11	W
21/06	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
13/06	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-3	7	8	L

La Luz

LWDLWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
17/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-2	10	2	L
08/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	2-5	9	12	L
27/07	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
13/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
04/07	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	9	10	L
28/06	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
21/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	11	W
14/06	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-4	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an La Luz win (38%). Probabilities: Uruguay Montevideo 31%, draw 31%, La Luz 38%.

How many goals are expected in Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Uruguay Montevideo 0.97 · La Luz 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.