Football · Uruguay Segunda · 30/08, 15:00

Prediction: Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Miramar Misiones

Team pages: Atletico Fenix Montevideo · Miramar Misiones

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.52

Miramar Misiones0.98

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo Draw Miramar Misiones

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWDDLW

Miramar Misiones 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLLDLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 0–3–0 Miramar Misiones (3 last)

Miramar Misiones1-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-0Miramar Misiones
Miramar Misiones1-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1485 · Miramar Misiones 1429

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Draw	Miramar Misiones
Our model	48%	28%	23%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Fenix Montevideo (rating 1485 vs 1429).
Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Miramar Misiones
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.7	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.20

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:43 +8’	1.83	3.20	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 0–3–0 Miramar Misiones

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Miramar Misiones	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
22/09/24 Uruguay Clausura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	Miramar Misiones
09/03/24 Uruguay Apertura	Miramar Misiones	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Miramar Misiones
Tacuarembo	2-0 W	1-1 D
Plaza Colonia	1-4 L	0-3 L
La Luz	0-0 D	0-1 L
Cerrito	1-1 D	0-1 L
CA Atenas	1-0 W	1-1 D
Paysandu FC	0-1 L	3-2 W
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	0-1 L
Uruguay Montevideo	2-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Fenix Montevideo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

DDLWLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	15	W
16/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-3	1-4	3	7	L
08/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
02/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
14/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
05/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
27/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-3	9	11	L
20/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-2	8	3	D
13/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	5	D

Miramar Misiones

WLWDLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
15/08	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
09/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
02/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-3	4	9	L
27/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	7	9	L
12/07	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
06/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/06	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	3-2	4	8	W
19/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
13/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	2-0	3-1	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Miramar Misiones?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (49%). Probabilities: Atletico Fenix Montevideo 49%, draw 28%, Miramar Misiones 23%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Miramar Misiones?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.52 · Miramar Misiones 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Miramar Misiones?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.