Football · Uruguay Segunda · 30/08, 18:00

Prediction: CA River Plate vs Rentistas

Team pages: CA River Plate · Rentistas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

CA River Plate1.37

Rentistas1.12

1X2

42% 29% 30%

CA River Plate Draw Rentistas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CA River Plate 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDLWWD

Rentistas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWDLD

Head-to-head

CA River Plate 3–2–1 Rentistas (6 last)

Rentistas1-2CA River Plate
CA River Plate1-1Rentistas
Rentistas0-5CA River Plate
CA River Plate1-0Rentistas
Rentistas1-0CA River Plate
CA River Plate0-0Rentistas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA River Plate 1552 · Rentistas 1502

	CA River Plate	Draw	Rentistas
Our model	41%	29%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA River Plate (rating 1552 vs 1502).
H2H favours CA River Plate: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA River Plate	Rentistas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/44/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	2.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	6.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 04:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	2.55 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.25 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:53 +6’	2.50	3.10	2.55
01:13 +7’	2.25▼	3.10	2.80▲
02:51 +7’	2.10▼	3.20▲	3.00▲
04:38 +3’	2.15▲	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:59	2.53	2.78	2.97
02:56 +2’	2.30▼	2.86▲	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA River Plate 3–2–1 Rentistas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Rentistas	1-2 HT 1-2	CA River Plate
23/03/26 Uruguay Segunda	CA River Plate	1-1 HT 1-1	Rentistas
08/10/22 Uruguay Clausura	Rentistas	0-5 HT 0-2	CA River Plate
13/05/22 Uruguay Apertura	CA River Plate	1-0 HT 1-0	Rentistas
06/11/21 Uruguay Clausura	Rentistas	1-0 HT 1-0	CA River Plate
17/07/21 Uruguay Apertura	CA River Plate	0-0 HT 0-0	Rentistas

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA River Plate	Rentistas
Paysandu FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Miramar Misiones	3-0 W	1-1 D
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	2-1 W
Tacuarembo	0-1 L	0-1 L
Uruguay Montevideo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Plaza Colonia	3-2 W	1-1 D
Club Oriental	2-1 W	0-3 L
La Luz	0-0 D	5-2 W
Cerrito	6-4 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA River Plate (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA River Plate

WLDWWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
15/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	3-0	1	4	W
09/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
02/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
11/07	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
05/07	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
28/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
20/06	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
14/06	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	5-3	6-4	4	8	W

Rentistas

LWWLWDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
16/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
10/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
01/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	2-1	5-2	1	12	W
18/07	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
12/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-1	4	11	W
04/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
27/06	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
21/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	10	W
14/06	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA River Plate vs Rentistas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA River Plate win (42%). Probabilities: CA River Plate 42%, draw 29%, Rentistas 30%.

How many goals are expected in CA River Plate vs Rentistas?

The model expects 2.5 goals (CA River Plate 1.37 · Rentistas 1.12), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CA River Plate vs Rentistas?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.