Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 13/09, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico Barinas vs CD Lara

Team pages: Atletico Barinas · CD Lara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Atletico Barinas1.21

CD Lara1.87

1X2

23% 25% 52%

Atletico Barinas Draw CD Lara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Barinas 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLDLW

CD Lara 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Barinas 0–3 CD Lara (3 last)

CD Lara4-1Atletico Barinas
Atletico Barinas1-3CD Lara
CD Lara1-0Atletico Barinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Barinas 1491 · CD Lara 1571

	Atletico Barinas	Draw	CD Lara
Our model	24%	25%	52%
Market	23%	26%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Lara (rating 1491 vs 1571).
H2H favours CD Lara: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Barinas	CD Lara
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.3	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	6.3 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.50

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:07 +4’	3.90	3.50	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Barinas 0–0–3 CD Lara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	CD Lara	4-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Barinas
19/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	1-3 HT 1-1	CD Lara
21/02/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	CD Lara	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Barinas

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	24	15	6	3	41	20	51
2	Barquisimeto	24	12	7	5	42	26	43
3	Urena SC	24	10	9	5	37	26	39
4	Yaracuyanos	24	10	7	7	31	25	37
5	Zamora II	24	9	7	8	37	33	34
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	24	8	5	11	30	32	29
7	Atletico Barinas	24	8	3	13	44	53	27
8	Atletico El Vigia	24	7	6	11	27	40	27
9	Real Frontera	24	3	2	19	20	54	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Barinas	CD Lara
Yaracuyanos	1-0 W	2-2 D
Atletico El Vigia	1-2 L	1-2 L
Urena SC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Barquisimeto	1-5 L	2-1 W
Zamora II	2-3 L	2-0 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	3-5 L	3-0 W
Real Frontera	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Lara (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Barinas

WWLWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/09	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
23/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
09/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-3	2-3	6	4	L
02/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-3	3-5	4	6	L
29/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L
06/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
31/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	7-1	7	2	W

CD Lara

WLWLDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	11	W
03/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
29/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
22/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	5	7	W
15/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-0	5	7	W
02/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	7	10	D
29/07	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	0	4	L
25/07	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	4-1	8	5	W
06/06	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-3	10	6	L
30/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	0	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Barinas vs CD Lara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Lara win (52%). Probabilities: Atletico Barinas 23%, draw 25%, CD Lara 52%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Barinas vs CD Lara?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Atletico Barinas 1.21 · CD Lara 1.87), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Barinas vs CD Lara?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.