Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 13/09, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico El Vigia vs Yaracuyanos

Team pages: Atletico El Vigia · Yaracuyanos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Atletico El Vigia1.36

Yaracuyanos1.26

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Atletico El Vigia Draw Yaracuyanos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico El Vigia 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDWWWW

Yaracuyanos 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Atletico El Vigia 0–3–3 Yaracuyanos (6 last)

Yaracuyanos0-0Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia0-1Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos2-0Atletico El Vigia
Yaracuyanos2-1Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia1-1Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos1-1Atletico El Vigia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico El Vigia 1540 · Yaracuyanos 1504

	Atletico El Vigia	Draw	Yaracuyanos
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Yaracuyanos: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico El Vigia	Yaracuyanos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	3.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.30

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:06 +5’	2.30	3.30	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico El Vigia 0–3–3 Yaracuyanos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
19/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	0-1 HT 0-1	Yaracuyanos
21/02/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
19/04/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	2-1 HT 1-1	Atletico El Vigia
17/09/23 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	1-1 HT 1-0	Yaracuyanos
29/07/23 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico El Vigia

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	24	15	6	3	41	20	51
2	Barquisimeto	24	12	7	5	42	26	43
3	Urena SC	24	10	9	5	37	26	39
4	Yaracuyanos	24	10	7	7	31	25	37
5	Zamora II	24	9	7	8	37	33	34
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	24	8	5	11	30	32	29
7	Atletico Barinas	24	8	3	13	44	53	27
8	Atletico El Vigia	24	7	6	11	27	40	27
9	Real Frontera	24	3	2	19	20	54	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico El Vigia	Yaracuyanos
Atletico Barinas	2-1 W	0-1 L
Urena SC	1-0 W	4-3 W
Barquisimeto	5-2 W	0-0 D
Zamora II	2-0 W	2-1 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-0 D	0-0 D
Real Frontera	3-1 W	2-0 W
CD Lara	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico El Vigia (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico El Vigia

LLDWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-1	13	4	W
30/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	5-2	3	2	W
15/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
29/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
31/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-7	3	2	L
24/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Yaracuyanos

DLDDWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
02/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	4-3	5	6	W
30/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
14/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
08/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
02/08	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	4	10	D
25/07	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
06/06	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
31/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	13	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico El Vigia vs Yaracuyanos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico El Vigia win (38%). Probabilities: Atletico El Vigia 38%, draw 28%, Yaracuyanos 34%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico El Vigia vs Yaracuyanos?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Atletico El Vigia 1.36 · Yaracuyanos 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico El Vigia vs Yaracuyanos?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.