Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 20/09, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico Barinas vs Academia Puerto Cabello II

Team pages: Atletico Barinas · Academia Puerto Cabello II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Atletico Barinas1.75

Academia Puerto Cabello II1.45

1X2

43% 26% 30%

Atletico Barinas Draw Academia Puerto Cabello II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Barinas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Academia Puerto Cabello II 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Barinas 2–1 Academia Puerto Cabello II (3 last)

Academia Puerto Cabello II5-3Atletico Barinas
Atletico Barinas2-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II1-2Atletico Barinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Barinas 1489 · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1445

	Atletico Barinas	Draw	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Barinas (rating 1489 vs 1445).
H2H favours Atletico Barinas: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Barinas	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.3	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:06 +3’	2.10	3.25	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Barinas 2–0–1 Academia Puerto Cabello II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	5-3 HT 3-2	Atletico Barinas
03/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	2-1 HT 1-1	Academia Puerto Cabello II
08/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-2 HT 0-2	Atletico Barinas

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	27	18	6	3	46	20	60
2	Barquisimeto	26	13	8	5	45	27	47
3	Urena SC	26	12	9	5	41	28	45
4	Yaracuyanos	26	10	7	9	31	27	37
5	Zamora II	25	9	7	9	37	35	34
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	26	8	6	12	33	36	30
7	Atletico El Vigia	26	8	6	12	28	43	30
8	Atletico Barinas	26	8	4	14	45	55	28
9	Real Frontera	26	3	3	20	21	56	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Barinas	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Real Frontera	1-1 D	3-0 W
CD Lara	0-1 L	0-3 L
Yaracuyanos	1-0 W	0-0 D
Atletico El Vigia	1-2 L	0-0 D
Urena SC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Barquisimeto	1-5 L	1-1 D
Zamora II	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Barinas (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Barinas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
13/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	0	6	L
06/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/09	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
23/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
09/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-3	2-3	6	4	L
02/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-3	3-5	4	6	L
29/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L

Academia Puerto Cabello II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-3	5	9	L
12/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
06/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-3	6	2	L
30/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
22/08	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
14/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
09/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	3-2	5-3	3	6	W
29/07	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
25/07	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	5	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Barinas vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Barinas win (43%). Probabilities: Atletico Barinas 43%, draw 26%, Academia Puerto Cabello II 30%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Barinas vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Atletico Barinas 1.75 · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1.45), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Barinas vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.