Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 30/09, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico El Vigia vs Zamora II

Team pages: Atletico El Vigia · Zamora II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Atletico El Vigia1.29

Zamora II1.31

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Atletico El Vigia Draw Zamora II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico El Vigia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWLWD

Zamora II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Atletico El Vigia 1–2–0 Zamora II (3 last)

Zamora II0-2Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia1-1Zamora II
Zamora II0-0Atletico El Vigia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico El Vigia 1566 · Zamora II 1497

	Atletico El Vigia	Draw	Zamora II
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	36%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico El Vigia (rating 1566 vs 1497).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico El Vigia	Zamora II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 18:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.45▼	Bet365 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.40▲	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:54 +18’	2.63	3.40	2.25
00:02 +3’	2.25▼	3.40	2.63▲
03:43 +23’	1.90▼	3.50▲	3.30▲
16:07 +2’	2.40▲	3.40▼	2.50▼
17:17 +3’	1.95▼	3.50▲	3.10▲
18:28 +8’	2.45▲	3.40▼	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico El Vigia 1–2–0 Zamora II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Zamora II	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico El Vigia
16/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	1-1 HT 0-0	Zamora II
21/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Zamora II	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	27	18	6	3	46	20	60
2	Barquisimeto	27	14	8	5	48	27	50
3	Urena SC	28	12	9	7	41	34	45
4	Yaracuyanos	27	11	7	9	34	27	40
5	Zamora II	27	11	7	9	42	36	40
6	Atletico El Vigia	28	9	7	12	32	45	34
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	28	8	7	13	36	40	31
8	Atletico Barinas	28	9	4	15	49	59	31
9	Real Frontera	28	3	3	22	22	62	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico El Vigia	Zamora II
Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-1 D	3-0 W
Real Frontera	3-1 W	2-0 W
CD Lara	0-3 L	0-2 L
Yaracuyanos	1-0 W	1-2 L
Atletico Barinas	2-1 W	2-1 W
Urena SC	1-0 W	3-0 W
Barquisimeto	5-2 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zamora II (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico El Vigia

WDWWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
20/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
17/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
13/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
02/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-1	13	4	W
30/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	5-2	3	2	W
15/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-1	7	8	W

Zamora II

DWLLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
20/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	5	6	W
16/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	3-0	8	2	W
02/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
29/08	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
22/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
15/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
09/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	3-1	3-2	4	4	W
03/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-2	9	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico El Vigia vs Zamora II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Zamora II win (37%). Probabilities: Atletico El Vigia 36%, draw 27%, Zamora II 37%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico El Vigia vs Zamora II?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Atletico El Vigia 1.29 · Zamora II 1.31), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico El Vigia vs Zamora II?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.