Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 26/09, 22:30

Prediction: Barquisimeto vs Urena SC

Team pages: Barquisimeto · Urena SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Barquisimeto1.55

Urena SC1.14

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Barquisimeto Draw Urena SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Barquisimeto 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDLWDW

Urena SC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Barquisimeto 3–3–0 Urena SC (6 last)

Urena SC1-1Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto0-0Urena SC
Urena SC1-2Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto2-1Urena SC
Urena SC1-1Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto2-0Urena SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barquisimeto 1521 · Urena SC 1454

	Barquisimeto	Draw	Urena SC
Our model	46%	28%	27%
Market	46%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barquisimeto (rating 1521 vs 1454).
H2H favours Barquisimeto: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barquisimeto	Urena SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.6	2.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.7	6.2 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +5’	1.95	3.40	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barquisimeto 3–3–0 Urena SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Barquisimeto
09/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	0-0 HT 0-0	Urena SC
15/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Barquisimeto
04/10/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-1 HT 1-0	Urena SC
24/08/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 1-1	Barquisimeto
28/06/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-0 HT 0-0	Urena SC

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	27	18	6	3	46	20	60
2	Barquisimeto	26	13	8	5	45	27	47
3	Urena SC	27	12	9	6	41	31	45
4	Zamora II	26	10	7	9	40	35	37
5	Yaracuyanos	26	10	7	9	31	27	37
6	Atletico El Vigia	27	9	6	12	31	44	33
7	Atletico Barinas	27	9	4	14	48	57	31
8	Academia Puerto Cabello II	27	8	6	13	35	39	30
9	Real Frontera	27	3	3	21	22	59	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barquisimeto	Urena SC
Zamora II	2-0 W	0-3 L
Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-1 D	3-2 W
Real Frontera	5-1 W	1-0 W
CD Lara	1-2 L	0-1 L
Yaracuyanos	0-0 D	3-4 L
Atletico El Vigia	2-5 L	0-1 L
Atletico Barinas	5-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Barquisimeto (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barquisimeto

DWDWLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
12/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
05/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	4-0	5-1	6	4	W
03/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
30/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
23/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-5	4	2	L
15/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	5-1	3	3	W
09/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
29/07	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	1	9	W
25/07	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	2	9	D

Urena SC

WDDDLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	10	6	L
17/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	3-2	2	9	W
13/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	10	11	L
02/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	3-4	5	6	L
30/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
09/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
03/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-2	2	9	D
29/07	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barquisimeto vs Urena SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barquisimeto win (46%). Probabilities: Barquisimeto 46%, draw 27%, Urena SC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Barquisimeto vs Urena SC?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Barquisimeto 1.55 · Urena SC 1.14), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barquisimeto vs Urena SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.