Football · Panama Liga Prom · 28/08, 01:00

Prediction: Alianza FC Reserves vs Panama City FC

Team pages: Alianza FC Reserves · Panama City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Alianza FC Reserves1.1

Panama City FC1.44

1X2

28% 27% 44%

Alianza FC Reserves Draw Panama City FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC Reserves 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLLDWD

Panama City FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWWDDL

Head-to-head

Alianza FC Reserves 0–3–3 Panama City FC (6 last)

Alianza FC Reserves2-5Panama City FC
Panama City FC1-0Alianza FC Reserves
Alianza FC Reserves0-0Panama City FC
Panama City FC3-3Alianza FC Reserves
Alianza FC Reserves1-1Panama City FC
Alianza FC Reserves1-3Panama City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC Reserves 1483 · Panama City FC 1543

	Alianza FC Reserves	Draw	Panama City FC
Our model	28%	29%	44%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Panama City FC (rating 1483 vs 1543).
H2H favours Panama City FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC Reserves	Panama City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/44/11%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.8	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +6’	3.10	3.40	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Reserves 0–3–3 Panama City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/03/26 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	2-5 HT 1-2	Panama City FC
30/08/25 Panama Liga Prom	Panama City FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Alianza FC Reserves
25/02/25 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	Panama City FC
19/10/24 Panama Liga Prom	Panama City FC	3-3 HT 2-2	Alianza FC Reserves
27/07/24 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	1-1 HT 1-1	Panama City FC
21/04/24 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	1-3 HT 0-1	Panama City FC

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chorrillo	5	3	2	0	10	3	11
2	Potros Del Este	5	3	0	2	6	5	9
3	Tauro FC Reserves	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
4	Plaza Amador Reserves	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
5	Alianza FC Reserves	5	1	2	2	5	10	5
6	San Martin FC	5	1	0	4	8	11	3

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
06/08	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
31/07	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/04	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
24/04	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	11	5	D
17/04	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/04	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
01/04	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	8	11	L

Panama City FC

WWDLDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
14/08	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
09/08	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
02/08	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
26/07	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
01/05	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
25/04	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	0-2	–	–	L
18/04	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
12/04	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	1-1	3-2	1	5	W
02/04	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-0	13	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Reserves vs Panama City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Panama City FC win (44%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Reserves 28%, draw 27%, Panama City FC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Reserves vs Panama City FC?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Alianza FC Reserves 1.1 · Panama City FC 1.44), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC Reserves vs Panama City FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.