Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 04/10, 09:30

Prediction: Citizen AA vs Yuen Long

Team pages: Citizen AA · Yuen Long

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

Citizen AA1.92

Yuen Long2.15

1X2

35% 21% 44%

Citizen AA Draw Yuen Long

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Citizen AA 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWWWD

Yuen Long 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Citizen AA 3–1–2 Yuen Long (6 last)

Yuen Long4-0Citizen AA
Citizen AA1-2Yuen Long
Citizen AA5-0Yuen Long
Yuen Long2-4Citizen AA
Citizen AA1-1Yuen Long
Yuen Long2-4Citizen AA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Citizen AA 1478 · Yuen Long 1526

	Citizen AA	Draw	Yuen Long
Our model	35%	22%	43%
Market	35%	21%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yuen Long (rating 1478 vs 1526).
H2H favours Citizen AA: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Citizen AA	Yuen Long
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.5	2.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/50/38%	44/11/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X4.33

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 1.7 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	2.30 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:31 +17’	2.25	4.20	2.30
08:13 +4’	2.55▲	4.33▲	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Citizen AA 3–1–2 Yuen Long

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	4-0 HT 2-0	Citizen AA
21/12/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	1-2 HT 0-2	Yuen Long
18/05/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	5-0 HT 3-0	Yuen Long
08/12/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	2-4 HT 0-2	Citizen AA
04/02/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	1-1 HT 0-0	Yuen Long
03/12/23 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	2-4 HT 2-2	Citizen AA

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Central & Western	4	4	0	0	17	2	12
2	Citizen AA	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
2	Tung Sing	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
4	WSE	4	3	0	1	8	4	9
5	Resources Capital FC	3	2	1	0	16	3	7
6	Yuen Long	3	2	1	0	11	3	7
7	Hoi King	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
8	Sham Shui Po	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
9	South China AA	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
10	Sky Leader FC	4	1	0	3	3	11	3
11	Kui Tan SC	4	1	0	3	4	14	3
12	Leaper FC	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
13	Lucky Mile	4	0	0	4	3	13	0
14	Bright Cerulean FC	3	0	0	3	2	16	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Citizen AA	Yuen Long
Sky Leader FC	3-4 L	1-5 L
WSE	3-6 L	3-8 L
Shatin	2-3 L	0-2 L
Central & Western	2-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Citizen AA (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Citizen AA

LLWLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
20/09	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
13/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-4	–	–	L
10/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	3-6	3	2	L
03/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
26/04	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	10	6	W
19/04	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
12/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	–	2-5	–	–	L

Yuen Long

WWLDLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-2	2	8	D
20/09	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	6-0	3	4	W
17/05	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
26/04	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	1-5	2	0	L
19/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
12/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	3-8	10	1	L
22/03	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
15/03	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	4-3	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Citizen AA vs Yuen Long?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Yuen Long win (44%). Probabilities: Citizen AA 35%, draw 21%, Yuen Long 44%.

How many goals are expected in Citizen AA vs Yuen Long?

The model expects 4.07 goals (Citizen AA 1.92 · Yuen Long 2.15), with a 58% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Citizen AA vs Yuen Long?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.