Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 04/10, 09:30

Prediction: South China AA vs Tung Sing

Team pages: South China AA · Tung Sing

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

South China AA1.53

Tung Sing1.53

1X2

38% 24% 38%

South China AA Draw Tung Sing

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

South China AA 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLLDW

Tung Sing 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWWWWD

Head-to-head

South China AA 2–1–2 Tung Sing (5 last)

South China AA1-1Tung Sing
Tung Sing1-2South China AA
South China AA0-2Tung Sing
South China AA2-3Tung Sing
Tung Sing3-4South China AA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South China AA 1532 · Tung Sing 1570

	South China AA	Draw	Tung Sing
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	39%	22%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South China AA	Tung Sing
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.3	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
05:44 +4’	2.30	4.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South China AA 2–1–2 Tung Sing

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division	South China AA	1-1 HT 0-1	Tung Sing
10/05/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Tung Sing	1-2 HT 0-1	South China AA
07/09/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	South China AA	0-2 HT 0-1	Tung Sing
24/02/18 Hong Kong 1st Division	South China AA	2-3 HT 2-3	Tung Sing
17/09/17 Hong Kong 1st Division	Tung Sing	3-4 HT 1-0	South China AA

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Central & Western	4	4	0	0	17	2	12
2	Citizen AA	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
2	Tung Sing	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
4	WSE	4	3	0	1	8	4	9
5	Resources Capital FC	3	2	1	0	16	3	7
6	Yuen Long	3	2	1	0	11	3	7
7	Hoi King	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
8	Sham Shui Po	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
9	South China AA	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
10	Sky Leader FC	4	1	0	3	3	11	3
11	Kui Tan SC	4	1	0	3	4	14	3
12	Leaper FC	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
13	Lucky Mile	4	0	0	4	3	13	0
14	Bright Cerulean FC	3	0	0	3	2	16	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South China AA	Tung Sing
Resources Capital FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
WSE	0-1 L	2-1 W
Kwun Tong	4-2 W	3-2 W
Sham Shui Po	3-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tung Sing (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South China AA

LWWLWWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/09	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
13/09	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-1	11	5	L
06/09	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	1-2	7	6	L
17/05	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	3-1	4-2	8	0	W
10/05	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
26/04	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	3-4	3	4	L
19/04	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
12/04	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
22/03	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

Tung Sing

WWDLLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
20/09	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
13/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/05	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	3-2	6-2	2	3	W
10/05	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
26/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
19/04	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
12/04	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	3-2	6	5	W
22/03	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South China AA vs Tung Sing?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South China AA win (38%). Probabilities: South China AA 38%, draw 24%, Tung Sing 38%.

How many goals are expected in South China AA vs Tung Sing?

The model expects 3.06 goals (South China AA 1.53 · Tung Sing 1.53), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in South China AA vs Tung Sing?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.