Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 11/10, 07:30

Prediction: Hoi King vs Citizen AA

Team pages: Hoi King · Citizen AA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Hoi King1.97

Citizen AA1.57

1X2

47% 22% 31%

Hoi King Draw Citizen AA

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hoi King 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWLLWD

Citizen AA 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Hoi King 3–3 Citizen AA (6 last)

Hoi King2-1Citizen AA
Citizen AA3-5Hoi King
Citizen AA3-1Hoi King
Hoi King0-2Citizen AA
Hoi King3-1Citizen AA
Citizen AA3-1Hoi King

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hoi King 1529 · Citizen AA 1481

	Hoi King	Draw	Citizen AA
Our model	46%	24%	30%
Market	47%	21%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hoi King (rating 1529 vs 1481).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hoi King	Citizen AA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X4.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	4.00 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	2.40 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:46 +36’	2.25	4.00	2.40
04:20 +4’	2.00▼	4.10▲	2.70▲
06:43 +15’	1.85▼	4.20▲	3.00▲
11:13 +3’	2.05▲	4.10▼	2.63▼
14:48 +33’	1.90▼	4.20▲	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hoi King 3–0–3 Citizen AA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	2-1 HT 2-0	Citizen AA
28/09/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	3-5	Hoi King
27/04/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	3-1 HT 2-0	Hoi King
15/09/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	0-2 HT 0-1	Citizen AA
24/03/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	3-1 HT 1-1	Citizen AA
19/11/23 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	3-1 HT 1-0	Hoi King

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Central & Western	5	4	0	1	20	6	12
2	WSE	5	4	0	1	12	5	12
3	Yuen Long	4	3	1	0	14	3	10
4	Tung Sing	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
5	Resources Capital FC	4	3	1	0	20	6	10
6	Citizen AA	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
7	South China AA	5	2	1	2	4	4	7
8	Hoi King	5	2	1	2	8	9	7
9	Sky Leader FC	5	2	0	3	6	12	6
10	Sham Shui Po	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
11	Kui Tan SC	5	1	1	3	7	17	4
12	Leaper FC	4	0	1	3	4	7	1
13	Lucky Mile	5	0	1	4	6	16	1
14	Bright Cerulean FC	4	0	0	4	3	20	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hoi King	Citizen AA
Leaper FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Lucky Mile	3-0 W	3-1 W
Sham Shui Po	1-0 W	1-1 D
Shatin	3-2 W	2-3 L
WSE	0-5 L	3-6 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hoi King (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hoi King

LDDWWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
27/09	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	3-0	5	1	W
20/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
13/09	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-5	5	1	L
06/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
17/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
26/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
19/04	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
12/04	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
22/03	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-5	0-5	1	2	L

Citizen AA

LWLLLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-3	12	2	L
27/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
20/09	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
13/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-4	–	–	L
10/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	3-6	3	2	L
03/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
26/04	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	10	6	W
19/04	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hoi King vs Citizen AA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hoi King win (47%). Probabilities: Hoi King 47%, draw 22%, Citizen AA 31%.

How many goals are expected in Hoi King vs Citizen AA?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Hoi King 1.97 · Citizen AA 1.57), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hoi King vs Citizen AA?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.