Prediction: Yuen Long vs Lucky Mile
Team pages: Yuen Long · Lucky Mile
- Lucky Mile0-5Yuen Long
- Yuen Long2-0Lucky Mile
| Yuen Long | Draw | Lucky Mile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 90% | 7% | 3% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yuen Long (rating 1551 vs 1385).
- H2H favours Yuen Long: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Yuen Long | Lucky Mile | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 2.1 | 1.3 / 4.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/11/44% | 11/33/56% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.1 | 1.8 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yuen Long 2–0–0 Lucky Mile
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | Lucky Mile | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Yuen Long |
| 16/11/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Yuen Long | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lucky Mile |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central & Western | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | WSE | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Yuen Long | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Tung Sing | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Resources Capital FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Citizen AA | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | South China AA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Hoi King | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 9 | Sky Leader FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 10 | Sham Shui Po | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Kui Tan SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 4 |
| 12 | Leaper FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 13 | Lucky Mile | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| 14 | Bright Cerulean FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Yuen Long | Lucky Mile |
|---|---|---|
| Citizen AA | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Tung Sing | 2-2 D | 2-6 L |
| Kui Tan SC | 6-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Shatin | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Sky Leader FC | 1-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Central & Western | 2-2 D | 1-5 L |
| WSE | 3-8 L | 0-9 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Yuen Long (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuen Long
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 20/09 | Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-3 | 3-8 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Lucky Mile
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 27/09 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-3 | 2-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-4 | 3-6 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-4 | 0-9 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuen Long vs Lucky Mile?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Yuen Long win (83%). Probabilities: Yuen Long 83%, draw 10%, Lucky Mile 7%.
How many goals are expected in Yuen Long vs Lucky Mile?
The model expects 4.54 goals (Yuen Long 3.27 · Lucky Mile 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Yuen Long vs Lucky Mile?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.