Football · Romania Liga III · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: USV Iasi vs Aerostar Bacau

Team pages: USV Iasi · Aerostar Bacau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

USV Iasi1.55

Aerostar Bacau1.14

1X2

47% 26% 28%

USV Iasi Draw Aerostar Bacau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

USV Iasi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWLLD

Aerostar Bacau 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

USV Iasi 1–1–1 Aerostar Bacau (3 last)

USV Iasi3-1Aerostar Bacau
USV Iasi0-1Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau2-2USV Iasi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USV Iasi 1540 · Aerostar Bacau 1503

	USV Iasi	Draw	Aerostar Bacau
Our model	46%	28%	27%
Market	47%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	USV Iasi	Aerostar Bacau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/57/14%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.3	1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.70

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +24’	1.91	3.70	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · USV Iasi 1–1–1 Aerostar Bacau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Romania Liga III	USV Iasi	3-1 HT 0-0	Aerostar Bacau
07/11/25 Romania Liga III	USV Iasi	0-1 HT 0-0	Aerostar Bacau
29/08/25 Romania Liga III	Aerostar Bacau	2-2	USV Iasi

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSSM Vaslui	9	8	1	0	23	9	25
2	USV Iasi	9	5	2	2	12	8	17
3	CSM Adjud	9	5	2	2	19	10	17
4	ACS KSE Targu Secuiesc	9	5	2	2	21	14	17
5	CS Bradul Putna	9	5	1	3	22	14	16
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	9	3	5	1	14	11	14
7	Aerostar Bacau	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
8	ACS FC Bacau II	9	3	2	4	12	20	11
9	CS Gheorgheni	9	2	2	5	13	18	8
10	Viitorul Onesti	9	1	2	6	13	17	5
11	FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt	9	0	4	5	5	19	4
12	CSM Pascani	9	0	2	7	9	25	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USV Iasi	Aerostar Bacau
Odorheiu Secuiesc	2-2 D	0-2 L
CS Bradul Putna	0-1 L	3-1 W
CSSM Vaslui	1-2 L	0-3 L
CS Gheorgheni	2-0 W	2-1 W
CSM Adjud	2-1 W	0-1 L
FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt	1-0 W	3-0 W
Viitorul Onesti	0-0 D	1-1 D
ACS KSE Targu Secuiesc	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: USV Iasi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USV Iasi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Odorheiu Secuiesc Romania Liga III	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
10/10	CS Bradul Putna Romania Liga III	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
03/10	CSSM Vaslui Romania Liga III	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
26/09	CS Gheorgheni Romania Liga III	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
22/09	CSM Adjud Romania Liga III	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
19/09	ACS FC Bacau II Romania Liga III	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
12/09	FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt Romania Liga III	–	1-0	4	5	W
05/09	Viitorul Onesti Romania Liga III	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	ACS KSE Targu Secuiesc Romania Liga III	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
16/05	ACS FC Bacau II Romania Liga III	–	2-1	–	–	W

Aerostar Bacau

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Viitorul Onesti Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	ACS KSE Targu Secuiesc Romania Liga III	–	0-3	–	–	L
02/10	CSM Pascani Romania Liga III	–	5-0	–	–	W
26/09	FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt Romania Liga III	–	3-0	–	–	W
23/09	Odorheiu Secuiesc Romania Liga III	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
18/09	CS Bradul Putna Romania Liga III	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	CSSM Vaslui Romania Liga III	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
04/09	CS Gheorgheni Romania Liga III	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	CSM Adjud Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/05	Acs Bucovina Radauti Romania Liga III	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USV Iasi vs Aerostar Bacau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a USV Iasi win (47%). Probabilities: USV Iasi 47%, draw 26%, Aerostar Bacau 28%.

How many goals are expected in USV Iasi vs Aerostar Bacau?

The model expects 2.69 goals (USV Iasi 1.55 · Aerostar Bacau 1.14), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in USV Iasi vs Aerostar Bacau?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.