Football · Romania Liga III · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: FC Paulesti vs CSM Ramnicu Sarat

Team pages: FC Paulesti · CSM Ramnicu Sarat

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

FC Paulesti1.56

CSM Ramnicu Sarat1.66

1X2

36% 25% 40%

FC Paulesti Draw CSM Ramnicu Sarat

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Paulesti 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDLLLL

CSM Ramnicu Sarat 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLLWDW

Head-to-head

FC Paulesti 1–2–0 CSM Ramnicu Sarat (3 last)

FC Paulesti2-2CSM Ramnicu Sarat
CSM Ramnicu Sarat2-2FC Paulesti
FC Paulesti4-2CSM Ramnicu Sarat

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Paulesti 1405 · CSM Ramnicu Sarat 1478

	FC Paulesti	Draw	CSM Ramnicu Sarat
Our model	35%	25%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSM Ramnicu Sarat (rating 1405 vs 1478).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Paulesti	CSM Ramnicu Sarat
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.9	1.6 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 3.3	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +6’	2.50	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Paulesti 1–2–0 CSM Ramnicu Sarat

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Romania Liga III	FC Paulesti	2-2 HT 1-0	CSM Ramnicu Sarat
27/02/26 Romania Liga III	CSM Ramnicu Sarat	2-2 HT 2-1	FC Paulesti
04/10/25 Romania Liga III	FC Paulesti	4-2 HT 3-0	CSM Ramnicu Sarat

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSM Flacara Moreni	10	9	1	0	36	7	28
2	CS Tunari	10	7	2	1	22	11	23
3	CS Blejoi	10	5	2	3	18	13	17
4	Petrolul ZF 1948 Berca	10	5	2	3	29	25	17
5	Vointa 2024 Crevedia	10	4	1	5	21	19	13
6	ACS Progresul Draganesti	10	3	4	3	14	21	13
7	FC Pucioasa	10	3	3	4	11	10	12
8	CS Urban Titu	10	3	3	4	14	19	12
9	CSM Ramnicu Sarat	10	3	3	4	16	25	12
10	CSO Plopeni	10	3	1	6	11	21	10
11	ACS Viitorul Corbeanca	10	1	4	5	5	12	7
12	FC Paulesti	10	0	2	8	5	19	2

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Paulesti	CSM Ramnicu Sarat
FC Pucioasa	0-1 L	0-3 L
Vointa 2024 Crevedia	1-3 L	1-6 L
CS Blejoi	0-1 L	2-0 W
ACS Progresul Draganesti	2-3 L	1-1 D
ACS Viitorul Corbeanca	1-1 D	0-0 D
CS Tunari	0-2 L	1-2 L
CSM Flacara Moreni	1-1 D	1-5 L
CS Urban Titu	0-3 L	3-2 W
Petrolul ZF 1948 Berca	0-3 L	4-4 D
CSO Plopeni	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 8 L	3 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CSM Ramnicu Sarat (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Paulesti

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Pucioasa Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/10	Vointa 2024 Crevedia Romania Liga III	–	1-3	–	–	L
09/10	CS Blejoi Romania Liga III	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
03/10	ACS Progresul Draganesti Romania Liga III	2-0	2-3	4	4	L
25/09	ACS Viitorul Corbeanca Romania Liga III	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/09	CS Tunari Romania Liga III	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
18/09	CSM Flacara Moreni Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/09	CS Urban Titu Romania Liga III	–	0-3	–	–	L
05/09	Petrolul ZF 1948 Berca Romania Liga III	–	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	CSO Plopeni Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L

CSM Ramnicu Sarat

LDDWLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	CS Urban Titu Romania Liga III	1-0	3-2	3	11	W
17/10	Petrolul ZF 1948 Berca Romania Liga III	–	4-4	–	–	D
09/10	CSO Plopeni Romania Liga III	3-0	3-2	4	4	W
02/10	CSM Flacara Moreni Romania Liga III	1-2	1-5	2	2	L
26/09	FC Pucioasa Romania Liga III	–	0-3	–	–	L
23/09	Vointa 2024 Crevedia Romania Liga III	0-2	1-6	6	5	L
18/09	CS Blejoi Romania Liga III	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
11/09	ACS Progresul Draganesti Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	ACS Viitorul Corbeanca Romania Liga III	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/08	CS Tunari Romania Liga III	0-2	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Paulesti vs CSM Ramnicu Sarat?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSM Ramnicu Sarat win (40%). Probabilities: FC Paulesti 36%, draw 25%, CSM Ramnicu Sarat 40%.

How many goals are expected in FC Paulesti vs CSM Ramnicu Sarat?

The model expects 3.22 goals (FC Paulesti 1.56 · CSM Ramnicu Sarat 1.66), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Paulesti vs CSM Ramnicu Sarat?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.