Football · Romania Liga III · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Progresul Mogosoaia vs CSM Alexandria

Team pages: Progresul Mogosoaia · CSM Alexandria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Progresul Mogosoaia1.19

CSM Alexandria1.67

1X2

27% 26% 48%

Progresul Mogosoaia Draw CSM Alexandria

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Progresul Mogosoaia 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDWLWL

CSM Alexandria 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Progresul Mogosoaia 0–1–0 CSM Alexandria (1 last)

CSM Alexandria2-2Progresul Mogosoaia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Progresul Mogosoaia 1490 · CSM Alexandria 1546

	Progresul Mogosoaia	Draw	CSM Alexandria
Our model	26%	26%	47%
Market	27%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSM Alexandria (rating 1490 vs 1546).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Progresul Mogosoaia	CSM Alexandria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.4	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.60

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +5’	3.30	3.60	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Progresul Mogosoaia 0–1–0 CSM Alexandria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/08/26 Romania Liga III	CSM Alexandria	2-2	Progresul Mogosoaia

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti	11	7	4	0	15	7	25
2	Dunarea Giurgiu	11	6	5	0	27	16	23
3	ACS Inter Ilfov	11	7	2	2	28	16	23
4	CSM Alexandria	11	6	3	2	16	10	21
5	Acs Axi Arena	11	5	0	6	9	17	15
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	11	4	3	4	17	21	15
7	Cetatea Turnu Magurele	11	2	6	3	21	15	12
8	Dinamo Bucharest II	11	4	0	7	14	20	12
9	FC Voluntari II	11	3	2	6	16	20	11
10	Steaua Bucharest II	11	3	1	7	22	30	10
11	Oxigen Bucuresti	11	3	1	7	14	23	10
12	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	11	2	1	8	12	16	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Progresul Mogosoaia	CSM Alexandria
Acs Axi Arena	0-2 L	2-0 W
Oxigen Bucuresti	4-2 W	2-0 W
Steaua Bucharest II	2-5 L	3-1 W
ACS Inter Ilfov	2-1 W	0-3 L
Dunarea Giurgiu	1-1 D	2-2 D
Cetatea Turnu Magurele	3-3 D	1-1 D
CS Omega Sport Bucuresti	0-1 L	0-1 L
Dinamo Bucharest II	0-3 L	1-0 W
AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti	2-1 W	1-0 W
FC Voluntari II	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	6 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CSM Alexandria (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Progresul Mogosoaia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/10	Oxigen Bucuresti Romania Liga III	4-1	4-2	3	4	W
16/10	Steaua Bucharest II Romania Liga III	1-2	2-5	1	3	L
10/10	ACS Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
03/10	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/09	Cetatea Turnu Magurele Romania Liga III	1-1	3-3	1	7	D
23/09	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
19/09	Dinamo Bucharest II Romania Liga III	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
12/09	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti Romania Liga III	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
04/09	FC Voluntari II Romania Liga III	–	1-0	–	–	W

CSM Alexandria

WLDWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Oxigen Bucuresti Romania Liga III	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
23/10	ACS Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/10	Cetatea Turnu Magurele Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/10	Dinamo Bucharest II Romania Liga III	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/10	FC Voluntari II Romania Liga III	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
25/09	Acs Axi Arena Romania Liga III	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/09	Steaua Bucharest II Romania Liga III	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
18/09	Dunarea Giurgiu Romania Liga III	1-2	2-2	6	8	D
12/09	CS Omega Sport Bucuresti Romania Liga III	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
04/09	AFC Progresul Spartac Bucuresti Romania Liga III	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Progresul Mogosoaia vs CSM Alexandria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSM Alexandria win (48%). Probabilities: Progresul Mogosoaia 27%, draw 26%, CSM Alexandria 48%.

How many goals are expected in Progresul Mogosoaia vs CSM Alexandria?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Progresul Mogosoaia 1.19 · CSM Alexandria 1.67), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Progresul Mogosoaia vs CSM Alexandria?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.