Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: HPS vs PEPO

Team pages: HPS · PEPO

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

HPS1.42

PEPO2.23

1X2

23% 21% 55%

HPS Draw PEPO

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

HPS 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLLLDL

PEPO 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWDDW

Head-to-head

HPS 0–2 PEPO (2 last)

PEPO2-0HPS
HPS1-2PEPO

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS 1445 · PEPO 1581

	HPS	Draw	PEPO
Our model	23%	22%	55%
Market	24%	21%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PEPO (rating 1445 vs 1581).
H2H favours PEPO: 2-0-0.
High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS	PEPO
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 3.1	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	3.3 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.33

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.58 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:33 +2’	3.80	4.33	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +184’	4.58	4.32	1.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS 0–0–2 PEPO

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	PEPO	2-0 HT 1-0	HPS
02/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	HPS	1-2 HT 0-0	PEPO

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Championship Round, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	21	14	3	4	46	30	45
2	PEPO	21	12	6	3	39	25	42
3	Atlantis	21	10	3	8	64	48	33
4	HIFK 2	21	8	7	6	43	37	31
5	PPJ	21	7	9	5	42	34	30
6	HPS	21	7	5	9	42	48	26

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS	PEPO
PPJ	1-4 L	1-1 D
HIFK 2	1-1 D	2-1 W
Kiffen	1-2 L	0-2 L
Union Plaani	0-3 L	2-0 W
Atlantis	3-5 L	0-0 D
MyPa	5-2 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PEPO (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HPS

LWLDDLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-4	7	9	L
03/09	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-1	2	8	D
30/08	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-5	1	3	L
15/08	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
07/08	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
01/08	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-3	5-5	6	13	D
25/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-3	3-5	12	3	L
18/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-1	5-2	9	5	W
11/07	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L

PEPO

WLWWWWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	2-1	10	9	W
03/09	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
29/08	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
22/08	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	5-1	7	3	W
16/08	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	4-1	9	7	W
31/07	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
24/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
18/07	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	11	4	L
11/07	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	11	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS vs PEPO?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PEPO win (55%). Probabilities: HPS 23%, draw 21%, PEPO 55%.

How many goals are expected in HPS vs PEPO?

The model expects 3.64 goals (HPS 1.42 · PEPO 2.23), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS vs PEPO?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.